UK Faces Economic and Policy Challenges Amid Bond Market Shifts and Trade Tensions:

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went up around 0.63% on 12 March 2025.  

Macro Update:  Rio Tinto is set to raise $9 billion in U.S. investment-grade bonds to finance its recent buyout of Arcadium Lithium, issuing fixed and floating rate debt across eight tranches with maturities ranging from two to 40 years. Meanwhile, Britain's trade minister Jonathan Reynolds expressed disappointment over U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, emphasizing ongoing negotiations for a broader economic agreement while keeping all options open to protect UK business interests. The UK government successfully sold £5 billion in inflation-linked bonds, attracting a record £67.5 billion in orders, the highest demand for such sales in nearly two decades, reflecting strong investor interest in inflation-protected assets. On the defense front, U.S. and UK military commanders reinforced their commitment to NATO, highlighting joint military exercises as a critical deterrent against Russia, amid uncertainties over the U.S. stance on NATO under Donald Trump’s leadership. Additionally, the UK government announced the abolition of the Payment Systems Regulator (PSR), with its functions to be absorbed by another financial regulator, a move aimed at streamlining financial oversight, reducing red tape, and fostering growth. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Melrose Industries PLC (LSE: MRO) witnessed a rise of 8.76% followed by Spirax Group PLC (LSE: SPX) which gained around 5.19%. 

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a five-month low on Wednesday, weighed down by ongoing concerns over the U.S. economy amid President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies. Analysts noted that the country’s growth outlook continued to weaken, heightening focus on the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) release, which could lead to market volatility. In commodities, gold rose 0.14% to $2,924.90, silver climbed 0.67% to $33.36, and copper surged 0.84% to $9,731.30. Brent crude increased 0.40% to $69.83, supported by the weaker dollar, though fears of a U.S. slowdown and tariff effects limited further gains. 

Our Stance: Global financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical developments. In the United States, the S&P 500 index has entered correction territory, falling 10% from its recent highs, amid investor concerns over President Donald Trump's decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50% . Conversely, European markets have shown resilience; the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.6% following Ukraine's agreement to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, signaling potential geopolitical stabilization. Despite these positive developments, Russia's subsequent missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv, underscore the fragility of the ceasefire and the ongoing geopolitical risks . Additionally, rising oil prices, influenced by a weaker dollar, reflect investor caution regarding a potential U.S. economic slowdown and the broader impact of trade disputes on global growth. Given these mixed signals, market participants should exercise vigilance, as the interplay between trade policies and geopolitical events continues to inject uncertainty into the economic landscape. 

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 is trading at 8,547.84 on Wednesday, up by ~0.61% and forming a bearish candlestick pattern. Despite this, the index remains above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which acts as a strong support level, suggesting potential for continued upward momentum in the medium term. However, trading below the 21-period SMA points to short-term weakness, possibly signalling further declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41.41, indicating mild bearish momentum with room for additional losses before a potential rebound. While caution is warranted, short-term traders may find opportunities near support levels. Monitoring momentum shifts is crucial. 

Data Source - Refinitiv