Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd.

Highlights

  • Berenberg issues a BUY rating with a price target of GBX 3,250, implying a potential upside of 94.03%.

  • Greggs posted 6.9% growth in H1 2025 revenue, but LFL sales slowed in June due to extreme heat in the UK.

  • Company expects full-year profit to fall modestly below 2024 levels, but maintains confidence in shop expansion and cost mitigation strategy.

British bakery and food-on-the-go chain Greggs Plc (LSE:GRG) has secured two BUY ratings, including a high-conviction view from Berenberg with a price target of GBX 3,250, signaling a 94.03% upside from current levels. Investec Bank and Jefferies have also maintained BUY recommendations with price targets of GBX 2,670 and GBX 2,650, respectively. These bullish views come as the company released a mixed H1 2025 trading update, with revenue growth tempered by softer June sales.

While Panmure Liberum remains bearish with a SELL rating and a GBX 1,560 target (downside of -6.87%), the broader analyst sentiment leans positive.

H1 2025: Revenue Grows, But Heatwave Slows Footfall

In the 26 weeks ended 28 June 2025, total sales rose 6.9% YoY to £1.03 billion, up from £961 million in H1 2024. Like-for-like sales in company-managed shops grew 2.6%, with progress in May. However, record-high UK temperatures in June affected customer traffic, particularly in hot food categories, even as cold beverage demand increased.

Despite seasonal pressures, Greggs added 87 gross new shops and completed 31 net openings, bringing the total to 2,649 stores (2,085 company-managed, 564 franchised). The company is on track to meet its goal of 140 to 150 net new shop openings by year-end.

Operating Profit to Dip in 2025, but Long-Term Plan Intact

Greggs anticipates first-half operating profit to come in lower than H1 2024, mainly due to tough comparables and a front-loaded refurbishment program (108 stores already refitted in H1). Although cost inflation remains stable, the board now expects full-year operating profit to be “modestly below” 2024 levels.

Nonetheless, the company expects cost recovery measures and easier sales comparables in H2 to help offset early-year softness. Around 50 additional refits are scheduled for H2, further enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.

Analyst Optimism

The 94% upside projected by Berenberg—the most bullish forecast—highlights investor confidence in Greggs. Greggs prepares to release its interim results on 29 July 2025