Associated British Foods reports full-year results on Tuesday 3 November, and September's admission that Primark's like-for-like sales fell 2.6% for the year sets the bar the FTSE 100 group must clear.

The number that will frame results day

Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) is first up in a packed week of FTSE 100 reporting. The group publishes full-year results on Tuesday 3 November 2026, covering the 52 weeks to 12 September 2026. At the time of writing, those results have not been released, so this is a guide to what the market already knows and what it will be looking for.

The figure that shapes the debate came in ABF's fourth-quarter trading update on 10 September. Primark's like-for-like sales fell 2.6% for the 2026 financial year. Total Primark sales still rose about 2%, and the adjusted Operating Margin was put at around 10%.

That split is the heart of the story. Like-for-like sales strip out the effect of new stores, so they show how the existing estate is trading. A 2.6% decline means shoppers spent less in the stores Primark already had. Growth in total sales came from elsewhere.

Illustration: if total sales rose about 2% while like-for-like sales fell 2.6%, the gap between the two is roughly 2% − (−2.6%) = 4.6 percentage points. That gap is a rough measure of how much the non-like-for-like part of the business, such as new space, contributed. It is an approximation based on rounded figures, not a number ABF has published.

The September update broke the fourth quarter down by region, and the picture varied sharply.

  • UK: sales up about 1%, with like-for-like sales broadly flat
  • Continental Europe: sales down 1%, with like-for-like sales down about 4.3%
  • US: sales up about 11%, with 47 US stores

Across Primark as a whole, fourth-quarter sales rose about 2%, while like-for-like sales fell about 3%.

The contrast is stark. The UK was holding steady, the US was growing fast off a smaller base, and Continental Europe was the weak spot. When Tuesday's full-year numbers arrive, investors will be watching whether ABF gives more colour on what has happened in Europe since and whether the US expansion continues at pace.

At group level, the September update was more reassuring. ABF said adjusted operating profit was in line with expectations and that adjusted Earnings Per Share were expected to beat prior forecasts. Chief executive George Weston summed up the period by saying: "The Group delivered resilient trading in the quarter."

That gives two benchmarks for Tuesday. First, whether the final numbers match the guidance of profit in line with expectations and earnings ahead of earlier forecasts. Second, whether the commentary on Primark's like-for-like trend points to improvement, stability or further weakness.

The road to 2027 and the Primark split

ABF also looked further ahead in September. For the 2027 financial year, it guided to a Primark margin of about 10%, with new space expected to contribute around 4% to sales growth.

Illustration: applying a 10% margin to a hypothetical £1bn of sales would produce about £1bn × 0.10 = £100m of operating profit. The £1bn figure is invented purely to show how the margin works and is not a Primark number.

Tuesday's results may update or reaffirm that outlook. Any change to the margin target or the new-space contribution would be closely scrutinised.

Then there is structure. ABF has scheduled the separation of Primark for completion in December 2027. That makes the retailer's trading not just an operating issue but a central part of how the market thinks about the future shape of the group. Updates on the separation's progress are likely to draw attention alongside the trading numbers, though no new details have been verified ahead of the release.

The market mood going in

ABF reports into a supportive backdrop for consumer stocks. On Monday 2 November, the FTSE 100 rose 31.55 points, or 0.3%, to 10,761.33, its fourth straight gain. The FTSE 350 consumer goods and services sector climbed 2.5%, and travel and leisure 2.7%. JD Sports Fashion (LSE:JD.) topped the FTSE 100 with a 4.76% gain, and Kingfisher (LSE:KGF) rose 4.21%.

Reports tied that rally to a sharp drop in oil. Brent Crude fell to $105.09 a barrel at the London close, from $117.61 on Friday, after reports that Washington and Tehran were considering renewed indirect negotiations. A midday report noted lower oil was seen as supporting consumer-facing firms through lower transport costs. How, or whether, that affects Primark has not been addressed in the reports used here.

The rest of the week brings more retail evidence. Marks & Spencer (LSE:MKS) reports half-year results on Wednesday 4 November, with Peel Hunt suggesting food is doing much of the heavy lifting and clothing faces questions. Next (LSE:NXT) issues a third-quarter trading statement on Thursday 5 November.

Rates are the other big theme. The Bank of England decides on Thursday, with Bank Rate at 3.75% and a quarter-point rise to 4% widely expected; markets price it at around 95%. A rise would be the first in more than three years. UK Inflation rose faster than expected in September, and the Manufacturing PMI hit a five-month high of 52.8 in October. Sterling stood at $1.3417 and €1.1980, a relevant rate for a retailer with stores in Continental Europe.

Key dates to watch

  • Tuesday 3 November: ABF full-year results
  • Wednesday 4 November: Marks & Spencer half-year results
  • Thursday 5 November: Bank of England rate decision; Next third-quarter trading statement
  • Thursday 12 November: UK GDP first quarterly estimate for July–September, 7:00am
  • December 2027: scheduled completion of the Primark separation from ABF

The bottom line

Primark's 2.6% like-for-like decline for the year is the backdrop to ABF's results day. September's update showed total sales still growing, a UK Business holding steady, rapid US expansion and a weaker Continental Europe, while group profit was tracking in line with expectations. On Tuesday, investors will be watching whether the final numbers confirm that picture and whether ABF's outlook for Primark, with a separation due in December 2027, has shifted.