Cautious Optimism as UK Strain and Global Uncertainty Temper Market Highs:

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went down around 0.45% on 25 July 2025.  

Macro Update: UK retail sales rose 0.9% in June, partly rebounding from May’s sharp 2.8% drop due to hot weather, though the increase missed forecasts as inflation hit 3.6% and consumer confidence weakened. NatWest posted an 18% rise in H1 profit to £3.6 billion, beating estimates, launching a £750 million buyback, and raising its return on equity guidance, following strong results from Lloyds. Britain and India signed a major trade deal aimed at boosting bilateral trade by £25.5 billion by 2040, the UK’s biggest since Brexit and a key strategic partnership for India. Rightmove surpassed H1 forecasts with £211.7 million in revenue and 9% profit growth but expects slower H2 growth, while the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 fell 0.3% amid mixed earnings and market caution. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Natwest Group PLC (LSE: NWG) witnessed a rise of 2.27% followed by Ashtead Group PLC (LSE: AHT) which gained around 1.71%. 

Commodity Update: The dollar held near two-week lows Friday, heading for its largest weekly drop in a month amid U.S. tariff talks and upcoming central bank meetings. Gold dipped 0.23% to $3,365.90, while silver rose 0.61% to $39.46. Copper was nearly flat, up 0.01% at $9,877.10. Brent crude climbed 0.30% to $69.35, supported by hopes of a U.S.-EU trade deal and Russian gasoline export curbs. 

Our Stance: Global markets reflected a mix of optimism and caution as strong earnings from tech giants like Alphabet and renewed AI enthusiasm lifted U.S. indices to record highs, while concerns over upcoming central bank meetings and President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline led to profit-taking in global equities and emerging market pullbacks. Trump’s visit to the Federal Reserve, marked by criticism of renovation costs and pressure for lower interest rates, added to uncertainty around policy direction. Despite this, trade progress with Japan and the EU buoyed sentiment, stabilizing oil prices and supporting hopes of a mild, short-lived slowdown rather than a deep economic setback. 

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 is trading at 9,097.51, down 0.43%, but continues to hold above a key breakout level now serving as support. The index remains above both the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, pointing to a steady short-term structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68.81, reflecting strong momentum, although some near-term consolidation is possible. A move toward the 8,700 level may be observed as part of a normal market phase. With broader conditions holding firm, the FTSE 100 maintains a stable technical outlook, allowing for the current trend to potentially extend further. 

FTSE 100 Technical Chart, Source - EODHD/Others