Ceasefire boosts market mood as defence focus reshapes global outlook:

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update:  The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went down around 0.04% on 25 June 2025.  

Macro Update:  Burberry shares rose after Jefferies and HSBC raised their target prices ahead of the July 18 Q1 update, with expectations of resilience despite a forecasted 4% drop in retail sales. The UK announced plans to buy 12 F-35A jets, its biggest nuclear deterrent expansion since the Cold War. The FTSE 100 was flat as investors watched earnings and a fragile Israel-Iran truce, while UK labour data pointed to slowing pay growth and a 5% drop in vacancies. Liontrust reported a 28.3% profit decline amid £4.9bn in outflows. Verizon won a contract with Nokia to build private 5G networks at Thames Freeport to boost industrial connectivity. 

Top Market Movers:  Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Babcock International Group PLC (LSE: BAB) witnessed a rise of 12.21% followed by Experian PLC (LSE: EXPN) which gained around 2.11%. 

Commodity Update:  The dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday as investor sentiment improved amid hopes of a fragile truce between Israel and Iran, prompting a shift toward riskier assets. Gold rose 0.28% to $3,343.60, silver gained 0.38% to $35.86, and copper increased 0.28% to $9,704.30. Brent crude rebounded 1.1% to $67.89 after sharp recent losses, with markets weighing the ceasefire’s potential to stabilize geopolitical tensions. 

Our Stance:  Global markets reflected cautious optimism as geopolitical tensions eased following a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by U.S. President Trump, which lifted equities and pushed global share indices to record highs. NATO’s expected pledge to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP, largely aligned with Trump’s demands, signals a renewed focus on security amid ongoing concerns over Russia. While U.S. stocks cooled after Tuesday’s strong gains driven by falling oil prices and rate-cut hopes, European shares remained mixed, bond yields dropped, and the dollar weakened as risk appetite improved. Gold steadied after a recent decline, with lingering uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear program keeping some safe-haven demand intact. 

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 is trading at 8,758.31, up 0.24%, as it approaches a key resistance zone while staying just below the 21-day Simple Moving Average, indicating mild short-term pressure. However, the index remains above the 50-day SMA, reinforcing a broadly bullish trend. The RSI at 52.85 reflects stable momentum, with room for potential consolidation. Immediate support is seen at 8,600—holding this level could support a renewed upside, while a breach may lead to a minor pullback. Overall, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, influenced by sectoral rotation and macroeconomic cues that continue to shape investor positioning. 

FTSE 100 Technical Chart, Source - EODHD/Others