Geopolitical Tensions Ease, but Market Eyes Shift to Fed Moves and Trade Deadlines:

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went up around 0.36% on 26 June 2025.  

Macro Update: Shell denied reports of a potential BP takeover, confirming no talks have occurred and that UK rules now block any bid for six months. UK long-term inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2022, raising concerns over price stability. Associated British Foods may close its Hull bioethanol plant due to the UK-U.S. tariff deal favouring U.S. ethanol imports. Topps Tiles announced leadership changes amid strategic shifts and investor pressure over margins. Next 15 Group warned of a sharp FY2026 profit drop after misconduct at its U.S. unit Mach49, leading to a 21% share fall. The UK also plans tougher trade defences to support domestic industries amid global trade uncertainty. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Anglo American PLC (LSE: AAL) witnessed a rise of 6.51% followed by Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN) which gained around 5.18%. 

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar slipped to a 3.5-year low against the euro on Thursday amid concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence. Reports suggested President Trump should consider replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which shook investor confidence. Gold rose 0.36% to $3,355.20, silver gained 0.55% to $36.31, and copper added 0.54% to $9,782.00. Brent crude climbed 0.20% to $67.80, supported by strong U.S. demand and Middle East ceasefire uncertainties. 

Our Stance: Global markets showed cautious optimism as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held, with European stocks edging up and U.S. markets pausing after recent gains. President Trump claimed U.S. strikes weakened Iran’s nuclear program and plans to seek a formal commitment from Iran to end its ambitions. Meanwhile, concerns over Fed independence grew after reports Trump may announce a replacement for Jerome Powell before his term ends, pressuring the dollar and lifting emerging market currencies. Focus also shifted to the July 9 U.S. trade deadline, as the EU rushed to secure deals beyond the U.S.-UK agreement. 

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 edged up 0.14% to 8,731.31, approaching a key resistance zone while remaining just below its 21-day Simple Moving Average, hinting at mild short-term pressure. Despite this, the index continues to trade above its 50-day SMA, signaling a broadly bullish trend. The RSI at 46.86 indicates softening momentum, suggesting potential consolidation ahead. Key support remains at 8,600—holding above this level could trigger fresh buying. Overall, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, driven by sectoral shifts and evolving macroeconomic cues influencing investor behaviour.  

FTSE 100 Technical Chart, Source - EODHD/Others