Global Markets Fall as Hawkish Fed & Commodity Slump Offset AI Resilience

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, was trading declined around 1.07% on 18 June 2026.  

Macro Update: The global macro landscape features a stagflationary shock cooled by a U.S.-Iran peace framework, dropping oil to $82/bbl. The Kevin Warsh-led Fed signals a hawkish 3.8% year-end rate, keeping global GDP growth subdued at 2.2%. However, robust AI capital expenditures and strong U.S. consumer spending continue to cushion the broader economic slowdown.  

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC (LSE: PCT) witnessed a rise of 2.66% followed by Informa PLC (LSE: INF) witnessed a rise of 2.24%. 

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a more than two-month high on Thursday as expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes strengthened, adding pressure on major currencies and pushing the Japanese yen closer to levels that have previously prompted intervention concerns. In the commodities market, gold declined by 1.06% to USD 4,334.90 per ounce, while silver fell 2.48% to USD 69.01 per ounce. Copper also weakened by 1.09% to USD 13,683.00 per tonne. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell 1.00% to USD 78.73 per barrel as investors evaluated the impact of the newly announced U.S.-Iran peace accord alongside concerns about a potential global supply surplus. 

Our Stance: The global economy faces stagflationary pressures under a hawkish, Warsh-led Federal Reserve pointing to 3.8% interest rates. While a U.S.-Iran peace framework has successfully cooled energy markets, structural vulnerabilities persist. Robust AI infrastructure spending and resilient U.S. consumers remain critical backstops preventing a deeper global recession. 

FTSE 100: The FTSE 100  Index is trading around 10,411.90, remaining in a consolidation phase while holding above its 63-day SMA of 10,375.89, indicating that the broader trend remains stable. Momentum conditions are neutral, with the 14-day RSI at 51.53, slightly above its average of 49.53. Immediate support is placed near 10,307.78, with the next support level at 10,203.66. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 10,516.02, while the next resistance level is located near 10,620.14. A decisive move beyond these levels could influence near-term market direction.