Global trade tensions and domestic pressures rattle UK and global markets:

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went up around 0.76% on 01 April 2025.  

Macro Update:  Major UK banks are closely watching a Supreme Court appeal involving Close Brothers and FirstRand, challenging a ruling that brokers must secure fully informed customer consent to receive commissions, which could lead to billions in consumer compensation. On the economic front, UK manufacturers faced a difficult March, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI plunging to 44.9, its lowest level since October 2023, a time when the UK was in recession. Additionally, British consumers continue to face inflationary pressure at the grocery store. Kantar reported that annual grocery price inflation rose slightly to 3.5% in March, up from 3.3% previously. Grocery sales increased just 1.8% year-on-year—the slowest pace since June 2024—highlighting continued strain on household budgets. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Rentokil Initial PLC (LSE: RTO) witnessed a rise of 3.17% followed by Kingfisher PLC (LSE: KGF) which gained around 2.81%. 

Commodity Update: The dollar remained steady on Tuesday after a tough quarter as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which was expected Wednesday with limited details. Trump hinted that nearly all countries would face new duties. In commodities, gold rose 0.72% to $3,172.90, silver gained 0.84% to $34.90, and copper surged 0.51% to $9,758.50. Brent oil held at $74.75 per barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions after Trump’s threat to bomb Iran and potential sanctions on Russia’s oil industry if Russia-Ukraine peace talks falter. 

Our Stance: U.S. equity markets faced significant pressure in Q1 2025, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their worst quarterly performances since 2022, driven by investor concerns over President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs. These trade measures, aimed at protecting domestic industries, have triggered fears of a global trade war, raising inflation risks and dampening growth prospects. As markets await further tariff details, investors have shifted capital toward safer assets like gold, which hit record highs, and European equities, reflecting diminished confidence in U.S. stability. The situation underscores the need for clearer policy guidance to restore market confidence. 

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 is trading at 8,635.29, up 0.61% on Tuesday, forming a bullish candlestick pattern that suggests the support level is holding. The index remains below its 21-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which act as key resistance levels amid persistent market uncertainty. This setup reflects cautious optimism, though additional price action is needed to confirm the next direction. Holding above a critical horizontal support zone signals a potential sentiment shift after recent lows. The RSI stands at 48.21, indicating moderate bearish momentum with potential for further downside. Short-term traders should closely monitor key support levels, as the upcoming sessions will be pivotal in determining the market’s next move. 

Data Source - EODHD/Others