Markets Juggle Trade Uncertainty and Fiscal Shifts as Nvidia Drives AI Optimism

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went up around 0.51% on 04 July 2025.  

Macro Update: British homebuilder MJ Gleeson warned that FY26 profits would fall at the lower end of expectations due to subdued demand and cost pressures, prompting a leadership shakeup with the resignation of its housing unit CEO and new senior appointments. Meanwhile, UK political tensions eased slightly after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves reaffirmed her position following criticism over budget U-turns, helping the FTSE indexes rebound. However, concerns persist over fiscal discipline as bond markets remain volatile. Separately, AstraZeneca is in advanced talks to license a lung cancer drug from Summit Therapeutics in a potential $15 billion deal, though no agreement is finalized yet.. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Vodafone Group PLC (LSE: VOD) witnessed a rise of 3.18% followed by Fresnillo PLC (LSE: FRES) which gained around 1.55%. 

Commodity Update: The dollar held firm on Friday after President Trump secured his tax cut bill, and global pressure intensified for trade deals with the U.S. A strong jobs report delayed expectations for a Fed rate cut, lifting the greenback from multi-year lows. Gold edged down 0.09% to $3,340, silver slipped 0.37% to 36.94$, copper dropped 0.37% to 9921.00$, while Brent crude inched up 0.01% to $68.81 amid anticipation over Trump’s upcoming tariff decisions. 

Our Stance: Global markets remain on edge as President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill narrowly passed Congress, delivering key domestic wins but raising fiscal concerns with an expected $3.4 trillion debt increase and cuts to social and green programs. Simultaneously, global trade uncertainty persists as Trump shifts from multilateral deals to direct tariff notifications, prompting investor caution ahead of the July 9 deadline. Meanwhile, investor enthusiasm for AI continues, with Nvidia briefly surpassing Apple’s market cap record, underscoring tech’s growing market dominance. 

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 slipped 0.32% to 8,799.22, nearing a key resistance zone while hovering around its 21-day Simple Moving Average, reflecting short-term indecision. Despite this, the index remains above its 50-day SMA, indicating that the broader bullish trend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index stands at 54.07, suggesting neutral momentum with room for consolidation. Strong support at 8,600 continues to provide a safety net, potentially attracting buyers if stability holds. Overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by sectoral rotation and evolving macroeconomic cues that are shaping market direction in the near term.  

FTSE 100 Technical Chart, Source - EODHD/Others