Retail Sales role in UK but Tariffs War looms the Global Markets:

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, went up around 0.19% on 28 March 2025.

Macro Update:  British retail sales rose unexpectedly by 1.0% in February, driven by strong non-food sales, defying analyst expectations of a decline amid broader economic weakness. Supermarkets saw a dip following strong January figures. In corporate developments, Elliott Management revealed a 0.5% short position in Shell, coinciding with its ongoing activist efforts at BP, signaling broader strategic pressures on UK energy majors. SSE appointed company veteran Martin Pibworth as CEO designate, tasking him with steering its renewables expansion and supporting UK decarbonisation goals. Meanwhile, WH Smith is divesting its 230-year-old UK high street business for £76 million to Modella Capital, allowing it to focus on its growing and profitable global travel retail segment. Shell is also exiting solar and onshore wind projects in Brazil, citing regulatory uncertainty, oversupply, and tepid demand growth. On the markets, UK equities ended lower on Thursday, with mining stocks dragging the index down after U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, heightening global trade tensions.

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, United Utilities Group PLC (LSE: UU.) witnessed a rise of 3.07% followed by Severn Trent PLC (LSE: SVT) which gained around 2.76%.

Commodity Update: The dollar remained near a three-week high on Thursday following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of new 25% tariffs on all auto imports, set to take effect on April 2. The move escalates the global trade war, raising concerns over potential inflationary pressures. Despite this, Trump stated that reciprocal tariffs on other countries will be "lenient." In commodities, gold rose 0.41% to $3,064.60, silver increased 0.29% to $34.32, and copper climbed 0.40% to $9,973.30. Brent crude saw a slight gain of 0.10%, reaching $73.84 per barrel, following a previous session’s strong surge.

Our Stance: Global markets remain on edge as investors brace for a pivotal week ahead, marked by a U.S. tariff deadline and critical employment data that could signal a cooling American economy. The S&P 500, while slightly recovering, is still down nearly 7% from its February peak, reflecting ongoing concerns over trade tensions and economic health. Eurozone equities also closed the week lower, with Germany’s trade-sensitive DAX slipping 0.6% amid deepening fears of a global economic fallout from the U.S.-led trade war. Oil prices eased due to tariff-related demand concerns, though remained on track for a third weekly gain, underpinned by tightening supply from Venezuela and Iran. Meanwhile, the euro dipped as weaker-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain increased expectations of further ECB rate cuts, while the dollar edged up ahead of a U.S. inflation release that could influence the Fed’s next move.

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 is trading at 8,689.16, reflecting a modest 0.27% gain on Friday, forming a bullish candlestick pattern. The index remains above its 21-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), providing strong support levels. This technical setup suggests cautious optimism, though additional price action is needed for clearer direction. Holding above a key horizontal support zone indicates a potential shift in sentiment following recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53.10, signalling moderate bullishness with room for further upside. Given the prevailing market uncertainty, short-term traders should closely monitor key support levels, as momentum shifts will determine whether the rally continues or a pullback emerges. The upcoming trading sessions will be pivotal in confirming the market's next move.

Data Source - EODHD/Others