Key Highlights

  • Labour has moved ahead of Reform UK in one national poll, marking its first lead since March 2025.
  • Andy Burnham's arrival in Downing Street has prompted what commentators describe as the "Burnham bounce."
  • Reform UK has slipped from its long-held polling lead, although the extent of Labour's recovery varies across surveys.
  • Pollsters remain divided on whether the Green Party has lost support or continues to hold its voter base.
  • Political analysts caution that it is too early to determine whether the polling shift represents a lasting trend.

Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister for little more than a week, yet the political landscape has already begun to shift. A series of opinion polls published at the end of July 2026 indicates that Labour has regained momentum after more than a year of trailing Reform UK, with commentators quickly describing the improvement as the "Burnham bounce."

Whether the early polling reflects a temporary honeymoon period or the beginning of a sustained recovery remains one of the biggest questions facing British politics.

How Burnham Got Here

One of the clearest signs of Labour's resurgence came from More in Common, whose fieldwork conducted between 24 and 27 July placed Labour on 28%, ahead of Reform UK on 24%. The Conservatives followed on 22%, with the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Green Party on 8%.

The result marked Labour's first lead in a national More in Common poll since March 2025, ending Reform UK's extended period at the top of the polling averages.

The political turnaround follows a dramatic sequence of events.

Josh Simons resigned as MP for Makerfield in May 2026, enabling Andy Burnham to return to the House of Commons through a by-election in June. Following Sir Keir Starmer's resignation, Burnham secured the Labour leadership unopposed after receiving overwhelming backing from Labour MPs before becoming Prime Minister later in July.

Since entering Downing Street, Burnham has emphasised economic growth, regional investment and further devolution as central priorities for his administration.

Why This Matters

For much of the previous year, Reform UK dominated national opinion polls, with Nigel Farage's party frequently leading voting intention surveys.

Labour's return to the top of at least one national poll therefore represents an important shift in political momentum.

Burnham has also benefited from relatively favourable personal ratings.

Recent YouGov research placed the Prime Minister in positive net territory, contrasting with considerably weaker ratings for several other party leaders.

The polling changes may also have wider electoral significance.

Analysts suggest that relatively small movements in national vote share could translate into substantial changes in parliamentary constituencies because of increasingly competitive contests between Labour, Reform UK, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.

The Greens: A More Complicated Picture

While Reform UK's decline appears relatively consistent across recent polling, the picture for the Green Party is considerably less clear.

More in Common recorded Green support falling to 8%, suggesting Labour may have regained some progressive voters following Burnham's appointment.

However, YouGov surveys conducted during the same period continued to place Green support between 13% and 14%, indicating little evidence of a significant decline.

These differences largely reflect varying polling methodologies rather than a settled change in public opinion.

Although Green Party leader Zack Polanski continues to face challenging personal approval ratings, the party's support among younger and environmentally focused voters appears more resilient in several surveys than Labour's early recovery alone might suggest.

As a result, political analysts remain cautious about concluding that Labour has significantly weakened Green support nationwide.

Risks, Caveats and Reasons for Caution

Most polling experts continue to urge restraint when interpreting the latest surveys.

Political analyst Peter Kellner has argued that it remains far too early to determine whether Labour's improved polling represents a short-term leadership bounce or the beginning of a lasting political realignment.

Several factors support that cautious assessment.

Leadership transitions frequently generate temporary improvements in public opinion before more sustained political scrutiny begins.

Labour's recovery also remains relative rather than complete. Despite recent gains, the party continues to poll well below the level achieved at the previous general election.

Some analysts also argue that Reform UK's decline may reflect challenges facing Nigel Farage and voter fatigue rather than a decisive shift towards Labour.

At the same time, different polling organisations continue to produce noticeably different estimates of both vote shares and projected parliamentary seats, highlighting the uncertainty that still surrounds Britain's political landscape.

Burnham himself has sought to manage expectations, emphasising that long-term success will depend on delivering results rather than responding to individual opinion polls.

Outlook

The early evidence suggests that Andy Burnham's arrival has provided Labour with renewed political momentum.

Labour has ended Reform UK's extended lead in at least one major national poll, while Burnham's personal popularity has strengthened the party's position during the opening days of his premiership.

However, whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery remains uncertain.

Reform UK continues to command significant national support, while polling evidence regarding the Green Party remains mixed. The coming months, rather than the first few weeks of Burnham's leadership, are likely to determine whether the "Burnham bounce" develops into a lasting political trend or proves to be a short-lived boost.