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Highlights:

  • BP expects Q2FY25 upstream production to increase versus Q1, led by bpx energy.
  • BP's oil and gas realizations anticipated to weigh on results by up to GBP 1.1 billion.
  • BP Group projects GBO 0.5–1.5 billion in post-tax adjusting impairments across multiple segments.

BP plc (LSE:BP) has issued a trading update outlining preliminary expectations for the second quarter ending 30 June 2025, ahead of its official results scheduled for release on 5 August 2025. Group-level upstream production for Q2FY25 is expected to show an increase from the previous quarter. This growth is primarily attributed to higher output in the oil production & operations segment, notably in bpx energy, BP’s U.S. shale oil and gas business. The gas & low carbon energy segment is also expected to see slightly higher production volumes. However, while volumes may rise, lower price realizations could weigh on earnings. In the gas & low carbon energy segment, changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas benchmarks are expected to have a negative impact of between $100 million to $300 million.

In the oil production & operations business, the company estimates that realization effects driven by production mix and pricing lags in the Gulf of Mexico and the United Arab Emirates could reduce earnings by between GBP 600 million and GBP 800 million compared to Q1FY25. The customers & products division, which includes refining, marketing, and trading, is expected to deliver mixed performance. On one hand, the business benefited from seasonally higher volumes and improved fuel margins. Refining margins improved significantly, contributing an expected uplift of GBP 300 million to GBP 500 million.

Oil trading activities are anticipated to have performed well during the quarter, in contrast with gas trading, which is expected to deliver average results. However, BP noted that the period was marked by a significantly higher level of refinery turnaround activity, which may have impacted throughput or added operational costs.

BP’s net debt is projected to decline modestly compared to the end of the first quarter, indicating a continuation of the company’s focus on balance sheet management. The underlying charge in the “other businesses & corporate” segment is expected to remain in line with the prior quarter, suggesting stability in this area of the business. However, a notable drag on the company’s upcoming financials will be post-tax impairments ranging from GBP 500 million to GBP 1.5 billion. These impairments, spread across multiple segments, will be treated as adjusting items and therefore excluded from underlying replacement cost profit a key earnings metric BP uses.

The trading update builds upon the company’s earlier full-year 2025 guidance provided with its Q1 results released on 29 April 2025. That guidance largely remains intact unless otherwise stated in this latest update. BP has reiterated that these current figures are provisional and subject to final review and adjustments during the company’s financial reporting process. The final results for Q2FY25 will be published on 5 August 2025.

BP share were trading at 2.61% higher at GBX 398.88 per share on 11 July 2025.