Highlights

  • Intesa and Jefferies both issued Buy ratings on NatWest and Lloyds, with targets ranging from GBX 119 to GBX 764.
  • Barclays received a Neutral rating from Intesa at GBX 470 and a Buy rating from Jefferies at GBX 560.
  • All three banks reported higher income in FY25 and outlined capital return plans including dividends and share buybacks.

Three major UK banking stocks are on brokers’ radar after updated ratings and price targets from Intesa Sanpaolo Equity Research and Jefferies. The latest calls cover NatWest Group plc (LSE:NWG), Lloyds Banking Group plc (LSE:LLOY) and Barclays plc (LSE:BARC), with Buy ratings issued on two of the lenders and mixed views on the third.

Alongside broker rating, let’s have a look at full-year 2025 results from the banks, detailing income growth, capital returns and forward guidance.

NatWest Group: Dual Buy Ratings

NatWest received Buy ratings from both Intesa Sanpaolo and Jefferies. Intesa set a target price of GBX 764, while Jefferies assigned a GBX 720 target.

Shares in NatWest were trading at GBX 606.00, up 25.80 pence (4.45%) at 12:21pm on 16 February, and approximately 38.04% higher over the past year.

For 2025, NatWest reported total income excluding notable items of GBP 16.4 billion, up GBP 1.8 billion year-on-year. Attributable profit reached GBP 5.5 billion, with earnings per share of 68.0 pence and a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of 19.2%.

Net loans to customers increased by GBP 20.7 billion during the year, while customer deposits rose by GBP 10.4 billion. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects total income in the range of GBP 17.2–GBP 17.6 billion and RoTE above 17%.

Lloyds Banking Group: Buy Calls and Capital Returns

Both Intesa Sanpaolo and Jefferies also issued Buy ratings on Lloyds. Intesa set a target of GBX 121, while Jefferies placed its target at GBX 119.

Lloyds shares were trading at GBX 101.30, up 0.90 pence (0.90%) at 12:18pm on 16 February, representing a 61.00% rise over the past year.

In its 2025 results, Lloyds reported statutory profit before tax of GBP 6.7 billion, compared with GBP 6.0 billion in 2024. Underlying net interest income rose 6% to GBP 13.6 billion, supported by a banking net interest margin of 3.06%.

The Board recommended a final ordinary dividend of 2.43 pence per share, bringing the total 2025 dividend to 3.65 pence per share, up 15% year-on-year. Lloyds also announced plans for a share buyback programme of up to GBP 1.75 billion, contributing to total capital returns of up to GBP 3.9 billion for 2025.

For 2026, the group expects underlying net interest income of around GBP 14.9 billion and a Return on Tangible Equity of more than 16%.

Barclays: Split Broker Views

Barclays received differing recommendations. Intesa Sanpaolo issued a Neutral rating with a target price of GBX 470, while Jefferies gave a Buy rating and a target of GBX 560.

Shares were trading at GBX 464.45, up 10.45 pence (2.30%) at 12:22pm on 16 February, marking a 52.58% gain over the past year.

For FY25, Barclays posted profit before tax of GBP 9.1 billion, compared with GBP 8.1 billion in FY24. Group income increased 9% year-on-year to GBP 29.1 billion. The bank reported a CET1 ratio of 14.3% at year-end.

Barclays has outlined plans to return at least GBP 10 billion of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026 through dividends and share buybacks, with a continued preference for buybacks.

The latest broker updates place NatWest, Lloyds and Barclays at the centre of market attention, with revised price targets and rating actions following FY25 earnings releases. While NatWest and Lloyds secured Buy recommendations from both Intesa and Jefferies, Barclays drew mixed views, highlighting differing analyst perspectives across the UK banking sector.

Frequently Asked Questions (F&Q)

  1. Which banks received Buy ratings from both brokers?
    NatWest Group plc and Lloyds Banking Group plc both received Buy ratings from Intesa Sanpaolo and Jefferies.
  2. What target prices were set for Barclays?
    Intesa set a Neutral rating with a target of GBX 470, while Jefferies issued a Buy rating with a target of GBX 560.
  3. What capital return plans have the banks announced?
    Lloyds plans up to GBP 3.9 billion in total capital returns for 2025, Barclays aims to return at least GBP 10 billion between 2024 and 2026, and NatWest continues to target ordinary dividends of around 50% of attributable profit alongside potential buybacks.