Key Highlights

  • IG Group Holdings plc (LSE:IGG) shares plunged almost 25% on 2 October 2026 after the FTSE 100 broker cut its 2026 outlook.
  • Third-quarter total Revenue fell 14% to £240.5 million, and 2026 guidance is now for mid-single-digit revenue growth.
  • IG is buying US prediction markets and fantasy sports operator Underdog for an Enterprise value of about $1.1 billion plus a $200 million earnout.
  • Buybacks are paused and expected to resume in 2027, while a progressive Dividend is maintained.
  • The FTSE 100 closed up 1.02% at 10,782.87 on 9 November 2026.

Why IG Group (LSE:IGG) Is in Focus Today

IG Group Holdings plc (LSE:IGG), the online trading and investing platform, is one of the most talked-about stocks in the FTSE 100 on Monday 9 November 2026. The index closed up 1.02% at 10,782.87 as risk appetite recovered, a welcome backdrop for a Business whose revenues depend on market Volatility and customer activity.

The shares, trading around 936p on 22 October, are far below the record near 1,730p set in May, after a near-25% one-day fall on 2 October that investors described as a de facto profit warning.

The October Warning

On 2 October, IG reduced both its revenue and Margin expectations for 2026. Guidance now points to mid-single-digit total revenue growth, against the 10% to 15% organic growth upgrade issued only in May, and an EBITDA margin in the low-40s per cent range. The shares fell to around 962p.

Management maintained confidence in medium-term targets, including at least 10% organic revenue growth a year from a 2025 base of about £1.1 billion, but the near-term hit to Earnings was clear.

Third-Quarter Trading

Third-quarter total revenue fell 14% year on year to £240.5 million and 21% from the second quarter's £302.8 million. Net trading revenue dropped 15% to £212.3 million as client trading margins slipped and activity cooled after an exceptional first half. Revenue was well short of consensus.

Underlying engagement remained healthy, with Assets under administration reaching a record £22.4 billion, up from £16.1 billion a year earlier, and strong flows on the UK direct-to-consumer platform.

Strong First Half

The warning contrasted with a strong first half to 30 June, when total revenue rose 18% to £642.8 million and adjusted EPS rose 21% to 68.9p. Organic active customers grew 13% and organic first trades rose 74%. Regionally, net trading revenue grew 22% in the UK and Ireland, 27% in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, 18% in the United States and 10% in Europe.

The EBITDA margin was 43.9%, down from 49.6%, reflecting consolidation effects, strategic review costs and Investment in growth.

The Underdog Acquisition

IG agreed in July to buy Underdog, a US daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator, for an enterprise value of about $1.1 billion, part settled with roughly 24.1 million new IG shares and about $380 million in cash, plus an earnout of around $200 million tied to 2026 targets. On a pro forma basis the US would account for about 40% of group revenue, up from about 22%.

Management expects the deal to be broadly neutral to adjusted EPS in year one and double-digit accretive by year three, with return on invested Capital above the Cost of Capital by year three and gross Leverage under two times at the end of 2026. Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027.

Strategy Update and Capital Allocation

At a Capital Markets event on 22 October, IG outlined a refined capital allocation framework with a commitment to an investment-grade rating and a progressive dividend, while Buybacks are paused until 2027, subject to share price performance and other demands on capital. It also plans a UK prediction market launch for professional clients in the fourth quarter.

The company is moving its Holding Company to Jersey while retaining its London listing and UK tax residency.

Risks to Consider

Trading revenues are cyclical, margins depend on client outcomes, and regulation of Derivatives and prediction markets is evolving, especially in the United States. Integration of Underdog adds execution risk and lowers the near-term group margin, and the share price has shown that guidance misses are punished severely.

Lower interest rates also reduce net interest income, which fell 22% in the first quarter.

What Investors Are Watching Next

Investors will watch fourth-quarter activity, completion of the Underdog deal, regulatory developments for prediction markets and any signs that client trading margins normalise. The timing of a return to buybacks and delivery against the medium-term targets will also matter.

Full-year results are due in the new year, when management will update on 2027 priorities, and market volatility in the coming weeks will influence trading revenue.