Highlights

  • JPMorgan has lifted the rating and placed Aberdeen on 'positive catalyst watch' ahead of July results.
  • Adviser vector flows may turn positive due to pricing changes and customer satisfaction trends.
  • EPS forecasts raised 2% for FY26 and 9% for FY27 above Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Aberdeen (LSE: ABDN) received an upgrade from JPMorgan Cazenove on Tuesday, with the investment bank moving its rating from ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’ and placing the asset manager on 'positive catalyst watch'. The move follows internal analysis ahead of Aberdeen’s half-year results due on 30 July, prompting a rally in the company’s shares.

According to JPMorgan, the Adviser segment, which has been under pressure in recent quarters, may be approaching a turning point. The bank attributes this shift to a revised pricing strategy and improved customer satisfaction metrics, both of which are expected to positively influence fund flows.

The report also highlights the performance of interactive investor (ii), a direct-to-consumer investment platform acquired by Aberdeen. JPMorgan notes accelerating momentum on the platform, suggesting it continues to gain market share, underpinned by competitive pricing and product structure.

A further area of focus is growing customer numbers and increased self-invested personal pension (SIPP) adoption, which JPMorgan believes could lead to higher average cash balances. These developments are expected to contribute to an uptick in treasury income and earnings per share (EPS) over the coming years.

JPMorgan’s revised EPS estimates place it 2% above Bloomberg consensus for FY26 and 9% above for FY27. The bank also anticipates potential multiple expansion if these growth drivers materialise, although it acknowledges that actual execution remains key.

By placing Aberdeen on ‘positive catalyst watch’, JPMorgan signals that near-term company updates, particularly the upcoming H1 results, could serve as key validation points for its revised outlook. However, the extent to which positive trends in customer behaviour and platform usage translate into earnings improvement will be closely monitored by the market.