Key Highlights


● Brent Crude climbed to about $108 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose toward $95 after President Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp Reversal from Friday's $92.41 low for WTI.
● Energy producers Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy and APA are back in focus, while airlines including Delta and truckers like J.B. Hunt face renewed fuel-cost pressure.
● The US national average for gasoline hit $4.48 a gallon on September 27, the highest ever recorded for this time of year, adding to Inflation concerns just before the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the September jobs report.

Wall Street ended last week on a high note, but the mood turned on Sunday night. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures edged lower after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices climbed as traders priced in a longer standoff over one of the world's most important energy routes.

Brent crude rose to about $108 a barrel in early Monday trading, while West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $95. That is a sharp turnaround from Friday, when WTI slid to $92.41 on hopes that talks could lead to a phased reopening of the strait. Gold went the other way, sliding to a seven-week low as the dollar firmed.

What Iran offered, and why Trump said no

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would reopen the strait within seven days if the United States lifted its blockade of Iranian ports and removed sanctions. "We are ready to open the strait if certain things are done by the US," he said, adding: "We stand firm in the face of any aggression."

Trump was unmoved. He said Iran wants a deal "because they're losing so badly" and that Tehran has "overplayed its hand." He did say he expects talks to resume this week, which leaves the door open to a deal and is part of why the futures dip has so far been modest rather than dramatic.

Meanwhile, the pressure campaign continues. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Operation Economic Outcast, launched in August, is "delivering results," with countries including Turkey, Oman and the UAE halting Iranian airline operations and banking transactions. A record 146 UN member states condemned Iran for attacks on civilian shipping, and Saudi air defenses intercepted Houthi drones and missiles aimed at Riyadh. Commercial traffic through the strait remains far below pre-conflict levels.

The stocks in the crossfire

Energy producers are the obvious winners when crude climbs. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) and APA (NASDAQ:APA) all traded higher with oil last week and are back on traders' radar before the bell. Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) is also in focus, as Hormuz disruptions push global buyers toward secure US liquefied natural gas.

The losers are the fuel buyers. Airlines on the Dow Jones Transportation Average, including Delta (NYSE:DAL), American (NASDAQ:AAL), United (NASDAQ:UAL) and Southwest (NYSE:LUV), rallied on Friday when oil eased. Monday's rebound threatens to undo that relief. Truckers are hurting too: J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ:JBHT) has already warned on profits because of diesel near $6 a gallon.

Cruise lines face the same squeeze. Carnival (NYSE:CCL) reports third-quarter results before Tuesday's open, with its shares near a 16-month low after analysts cut price targets over fuel costs. Tankers work the other way: Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG) and DHT Holdings (NYSE:DHT) sank last week when Iran first floated a reopening, which would end today's rich charter rates.

Why it matters beyond oil

Higher crude feeds straight into inflation, and inflation is the market's biggest worry right now. AAA put the national average for gasoline at $4.48 a gallon on September 27, the highest ever for this time of year and up sharply from $4.14 at the start of the month. It lands weeks before the November midterms, and in the same week as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the September jobs report.

It also complicates the story for stocks. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41, the Dow at 51,828.62 and the Nasdaq Composite at 27,068.72, all up for the week.

What to watch today

Keep an eye on three things: whether Brent holds above $105 through the US morning, any fresh headlines on when US-Iran talks might restart, and how airlines and energy stocks trade in the first hour. If oil keeps climbing, the pressure shifts to bonds and rate-sensitive stocks. If talks look likely, Friday's relief trade could return just as fast.