Henry Hub futures climb on colder forecasts

NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures for December delivery (NGZ26) settled at US$3.218 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Monday 9 November 2026. On Tuesday, December traded around US$3.29 at midday, up 7.4 cents, and the market described the day's move as another advance on short covering. US gas was near US$3.30 on 10 November, its highest level in four weeks.

The rally follows a firm Monday session, when December gas traded up about 5% intraday, reaching its highest since 19 October. Gas is behaving very differently from crude oil, which settled at its lowest since August on Tuesday.

Weather, LNG and softer output

The main drivers are weather and exports. Tuesday's gains were attributed to sizeable increases in heating degree days in the two-week outlook. Lower 48 Demand including exports is expected to rise from 114.7 billion cubic feet a day this week to 120.0 billion cubic feet a day next week.

LNG demand is at record levels. Feedgas flows to the nine major US export plants have averaged 19.3 billion cubic feet a day so far in November, above October's record of 18.4 billion. LNG export flows are a key support for prices.

Supply has eased from its peak. Lower 48 output averaged 112.1 billion cubic feet a day so far in November, down from 113.4 billion in October and a record 115.0 billion in August. One possible explanation for softer output is the weak pricing seen earlier in the autumn, though no cause has been established.

Storage is the main counterweight. The EIA reported a 77 billion cubic feet injection for the week to 30 October, leaving inventories at 3.801 trillion cubic feet, 1.4% above the five-year average. Stocks are estimated to have moved to about 2.1% above normal in the week to 6 November, with an injection of about 67 billion cubic feet projected for that week. The EIA also cut its winter price forecast in its latest outlook, citing mild weather, rising storage and production growth.

US producers: EQT and Expand Energy

EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT), the largest Appalachian gas producer, reported third-quarter sales Volume of 583 billion cubic feet equivalent, including 21 billion of strategic curtailments. It has a pending Acquisition of Range Resources and a 2026 production outlook of 2,375–2,450 billion cubic feet equivalent. Higher Henry Hub prices would generally support EQT's realised prices, though Appalachian basis differentials, hedges and its willingness to curtail output all shape how much reaches cash flow.

Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE), formed from Chesapeake and Southwestern, produced 6.92 billion cubic feet a day of gas in the third quarter, about 92% of its output, and reported adjusted Earnings of US$338 million. It guided full-year 2026 output to 7.45–7.55 billion cubic feet equivalent a day. With exposure to Haynesville Supply near Gulf Coast LNG terminals, Expand is among the US producers most directly linked to export-driven demand. As with EQT, how much of any Henry Hub move reaches its Cash Flow will depend on hedging, regional basis and Marketing arrangements.

Canadian, UK and Australian connections

Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) is Canada's largest natural gas producer. Most Canadian gas prices off local hubs such as AECO, which can trade at a substantial discount to Henry Hub, but Tourmaline also sells volumes into US and other markets. A firmer Henry Hub would be expected to help those export-linked sales more than its domestic volumes.

On 10 November, Centrica (LSE:CNA) was reported to have agreed to buy more natural gas from Tourmaline under an expanded deal. Centrica, owner of British Gas, is primarily a buyer and supplier of gas in the UK, where prices are set by the NBP hub rather than Henry Hub. For LSE:CNA, as a supplier and trader, the effect of gas price moves depends on hedging, Tariff rules and the spread between purchase and sale prices rather than the outright level. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices also rose on Monday on colder forecasts; those European benchmarks are context, not the US price.

In Australia, Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) is building Louisiana LNG, which was 32% complete at the end of September with first LNG targeted for 2029. Once operating, the project will buy US gas as feedstock, so Henry Hub will become a cost input rather than a Revenue driver for that part of its business.

What could move prices from here

Weather is the near-term swing factor. A colder-than-forecast late November would lift heating demand, while a milder outcome could quickly erase recent gains. LNG maintenance is another variable: both LNG Canada trains are scheduled for work through early December, and Venture Global is targeting first LNG at CP2 in July 2027.

New pipeline capacity could also reshape regional flows. Enbridge's 2.5 billion cubic feet a day Blackcomb pipeline from the Permian is in service and will ramp up through 2027. On a longer view, US gas is down about 28% year on year, which underlines how much lower prices are than a year ago despite the rally.

What to watch next

The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending 6 November is the next major data point; Veterans Day may shift its usual Thursday timing, so check the EIA release schedule. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report on Friday will show positioning after the short-covering rally. December futures expire on 25 November, after which January, quoted near US$3.64, becomes the front month. For Centrica (LSE:CNA), the next update on its gas purchasing arrangements will also be of interest.