Silver futures slide with gold after CPI

COMEX silver futures settled at US$51.225 per troy ounce on Tuesday 10 November, down 2.79% on the day. The quote is for the December 2026 contract (SIZ26), the most actively traded month, and it is a price per troy ounce. The standard COMEX SI contract covers 5,000 troy ounces, so the price per ounce should not be confused with the value of one contract.

Spot silver fell 3.95% to about US$51.30. By early Asian trading on 11 November, silver was back near US$52.4, although that intraday figure is not a settlement and may change.

Silver was the weakest of the major precious metals on Tuesday. The main trigger was US consumer price data that came in above expectations.

Rates, the dollar and industrial demand

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast. The figure, together with comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, increased bets on a December rate rise, and market pricing for an increase stands at about 91%. The dollar and Treasury yields moved higher.

Silver often moves more sharply than gold in both directions. It is a smaller market, and a significant share of its Demand comes from industrial uses such as solar panels and electronics. That makes it sensitive both to Monetary Policy and to the economic cycle. Based on Tuesday's settlements, the gold-to-silver price ratio stood at about 79, meaning an ounce of gold bought roughly 79 ounces of silver. One possible explanation for Tuesday's sharper fall is that higher rate expectations weigh on both its Investment appeal and the industrial demand outlook.

The longer trend also matters. Silver is down about 13% over the past month, and its record high, above US$120 in January 2026, is far above the current level.

US and Canadian producers

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL), which mines silver in Alaska, Idaho and Canada, produced 4.2 million ounces of silver in the third quarter. It reported record free Cash Flow of US$151m and improved its full-year cost guidance. It also announced a multi-year curtailment at Keno Hill in Canada's Yukon, which pushes the asset's commercial production out to the late 2020s or early 2030s. Its third-quarter AISC rose to US$14.34 per ounce from US$6.07 in the second quarter, while the average London silver price fell to US$62.73 from US$73.44. Because Hecla's costs are partly offset by by-product credits, its margins are sensitive to both silver and base metal prices. Even at Tuesday's lower price, the gap between price and AISC remains wide, though that gap will vary from quarter to quarter.

Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS; TSX:PAAS) produced 6.07 million ounces of silver in the third quarter at an average realised price of US$63.74. It cut its gold production guidance for the second consecutive quarter and said silver output is tracking towards the low end of its range. Its revised outlook assumes US$60 silver in the fourth quarter, which is above Tuesday's settlement.

First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG; TSX:AG) produced 3.4 million ounces of silver in the third quarter, down 11% year on year. A labour dispute cut output at San Dimas. The company is a relatively pure silver producer, so its Revenue tends to track silver prices closely.

Royalties, streams and UK-listed exposure

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM; NYSE:WPM; LSE:WPM) is a streaming company. It pays upfront for the right to buy metal at fixed low prices rather than operating mines itself. According to its third-quarter release, silver accounted for about 46% of revenue and gold for about 51%. It kept 2026 silver guidance at 27–29 million ounces. Because its purchase costs are largely fixed per ounce, its margins move with prices, but it does not bear mine operating cost Inflation directly.

In London, Fresnillo (LSE:FRES), a Mexico-focused silver and gold miner, reported third-quarter silver output of 10.3 million ounces, down 12% year on year, citing lower ore grades. It kept 2026 guidance of 42.0–46.5 million ounces. A lower silver price combined with lower volumes would reduce revenue for LSE:FRES, although its gold, lead and zinc output provides some diversification.

Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) is mainly a platinum group metals and gold producer, but it also has silver exposure through its recycling business. According to its third-quarter operating update, about 89% of the roughly 1.2 million precious metal ounces sold through recycling in the quarter were silver. This is a secondary exposure rather than a core driver of its earnings.

What could change the picture

A softer December Fed decision, a weaker dollar or better-than-expected Manufacturing data could support silver. A larger-than-expected rate hike, higher real yields or signs of slowing industrial activity could weigh on it further. For miners, the effect on Earnings depends on hedging, by-product mix and cost inflation. Several companies above, including Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) on its guidance, are working towards the low end of their silver production ranges, which limits how much Volume can offset weaker prices.

There is also a timing effect. Third-quarter results were earned at average prices well above Tuesday's level. If prices stay near current levels, fourth-quarter realised prices would be lower, which would narrow margins even if output and costs held steady. That is a conditional calculation, not a forecast.

Dates to watch

  • 8–9 December: the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the decision due at 2:00 p.m. ET on 9 December.
  • 10 December: US CPI for November.
  • Weekly: CFTC Commitments of Traders data for COMEX silver positioning, and COMEX Warehouse stock reports.
  • 11 November is Veterans Day in the US, so check the CME Group calendar for any change to trading hours.