COMEX copper ends lower after a US Inflation surprise

COMEX copper futures (HG, quoted in US$ per lb) closed on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at about US$6.2345 per lb, down 1.73% on the session. December (HGZ26) is the most active contract. Copper fell to around US$6.20 during the session, its lowest level in four months, and was near US$6.28 early on 11 November. Because these figures come from different feeds and times, they should be read as indicative rather than as an official CME settlement.

Tuesday's fall reversed much of Monday's bounce. On 9 November, December COMEX copper rose 1.9% to US$6.3550 per lb in late-morning New York trade, while three-month LME copper rose 0.9% to US$13,890 a tonne. LME prices are quoted in US$ per tonne and are not directly comparable with the COMEX per-pound quote.

What drove Tuesday's decline

The clearest catalyst was macroeconomic. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast, and the dollar index climbed 0.55% to 102.22. A firmer dollar usually makes dollar-priced metals dearer for buyers using other currencies. Markets also priced in tighter Federal Reserve policy, which raises borrowing costs.

Other explanations are less certain. There have been doubts about the pace of data-centre and electrification demand, and the US midterm election outcome may make copper tariffs less likely. No copper-specific trigger was identified, and traders appeared to be closing bullish bets after the previous week's weakness. One possible explanation is that broad risk reduction, also visible in gold and share markets on the same day, weighed on copper alongside the inflation data. Earlier in the month, December copper tested its 200-day Moving Average as buyers turned cautious ahead of the midterms.

Tight China, ample US stocks

The physical picture is split by geography. In China, cathode spot premiums reached a record average of 2,615 yuan a tonne on 6 November, Yangshan Import premiums hit record levels, and cathode stocks in major Chinese markets were about 62,600 tonnes, against 134,400 tonnes a year earlier. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell more than 24% in a week to 33,848 tonnes.

In the United States, by contrast, COMEX depot stocks stand at 732,943 tonnes, more than double a year earlier. More than 70% of LME stocks were in US warehouses as of 5 November, reflecting earlier flows of metal into the US ahead of a possible Section 232 Tariff on refined copper. The tariff decision remains a key uncertainty, and a definitive decision against a duty is seen as a downside risk for COMEX prices specifically. The COMEX–LME spread has narrowed to around Parity and at times turned negative.

How listed producers are exposed

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) sold 749 million lb of copper in the third quarter at an average realised price of US$6.54 per lb. Its 2026 cash-flow outlook assumed US$6.50 per lb copper for the fourth quarter, so a price near US$6.23 would, if sustained, sit below that planning assumption. Its Grasberg operation in Indonesia is still recovering from last year's mud rush, with mill throughput averaging 67% of capacity in the quarter.

Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO), which mines in Mexico and Peru, reported third-quarter mined copper output of 232,396 tonnes and record quarterly Revenue of US$4.70 billion, attributed mainly to higher metal prices.

In London, Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) produced 151,900 tonnes in the third quarter and kept 2026 guidance at 625,000–655,000 tonnes. As a largely pure-play Chilean copper miner, its revenue tracks copper closely, although by-product credits and the Chilean peso affect margins. For LSE:ANTO, a lower copper price therefore flows through more directly than it does for diversified groups. Glencore (LSE:GLEN) is both a copper miner and a major Commodity trader, so its exposure runs through Mining margins and Marketing earnings; trading profits can depend more on Volatility and regional premiums than on outright price levels.

In Australia, BHP (ASX:BHP) has large copper operations, including Escondida in Chile, although iron ore remains a major Earnings driver. Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) is a more concentrated copper producer with operations in Spain and Botswana. In Canada, Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.B; NYSE:TECK) and First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) are significant producers, and their shares have been sensitive to daily price swings.

For all of these companies, the effect of a lower copper price depends on unit costs, hedging policy, provisional pricing adjustments on sales not yet finalised, by-product credits and currency. A weaker price does not automatically mean lower earnings in a given quarter, and share prices may already reflect expectations.

What could lift or weigh on the outlook

Supportive factors include continued tightness in China, where record premiums and low exchange stocks point to firm near-term Demand for available metal, and any further mine disruptions. Freeport's guidance shows how much depends on the pace of Grasberg's ramp-up. Negative factors include a firmer dollar, a more hawkish Federal Reserve path, large US inventories that could flow back into world markets if tariff expectations fade, and any slowdown in Chinese manufacturing.

What to watch next

Key items include the last trading day of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's November contract on 16 November, which could test Chinese spot tightness; daily LME and COMEX inventory data; the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, normally published on Fridays; any Section 232 announcement on refined copper; and further US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary. China's October activity data from the National Bureau of Statistics, due in mid-November, will also be watched for signs of end-user demand, along with the next production updates from Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN).