The operating picture behind the headline numbers

Camellia (LSE:CAM), the agricultural group with tea, avocado, macadamia and arable operations across Asia, Africa and South America, has not issued a regulatory announcement in the 24 hours to early on 3 November 2026. Its most recent release, on 30 October, disclosed a memorandum of understanding signed on 29 October for its 74%-owned Indian Subsidiary Goodricke Group to sell the Barnesbeg tea estate for 50 million Indian rupees, subject to due diligence.

The more significant recent disclosure for the operating Business was the trading update of 22 October 2026, in which the group said it expected a full-year trading loss of £3m to £5m for the year to 31 December 2026, compared with a trading profit of £1.0m in 2025. That outcome contrasts with better performances in several of its tea businesses.

Where the pressure is coming from

The company attributed the weaker result mainly to higher costs of energy, fuel, fertiliser and transport, saying efficiency gains were being outweighed by those increases. It also pointed to weaker results from Kakuzi in Kenya, where group avocado prices fell and crop yields were lower, and from macadamia, affected by a downturn in global nut prices, lower yields and lower sales. Operations in Malawi and South Africa were also weaker. Kakuzi published its own profit announcement on the same day.

Elsewhere, the tea businesses in Bangladesh, India and Kenya were described as trading more well, and the Brazilian arable business in line with expectations. The company said JING was making good progress towards positive trading profits despite a downturn in its Gulf markets, while AJT was expected to trade disappointingly because of weaker North Sea activity.

Revenue, disposals and liquidity

Camellia (LSE:CAM) forecast 2026 Revenue of £255m to £260m, down from £268m in 2025, which it attributed mainly to the sale of some Indian tea gardens and lower macadamia and avocado sales. It expected profits from disposals of about £23m, mainly from artwork and tea gardens, and EBITDA of £25m to £28m. Group Liquidity was about £144m at 30 September 2026. The company cautioned that fourth-quarter phasing and seasonality could affect the final result.

Our interpretation is that the gap between the forecast trading loss and positive EBITDA reflects one-off disposal gains rather than improvement in the underlying farms, which is why the trading line is a clearer guide to operating performance. Disposals reduce future revenue from the Assets sold, as the company noted in explaining the lower revenue forecast.

Risks and dependencies

Much of the outcome depends on factors outside management control: Commodity prices for avocados and macadamia nuts, weather and crop yields, input costs, and exchange rates between sterling and the currencies of the countries where the group operates. Tea prices at auction can also be volatile. The group's assets are spread across several jurisdictions, each with its own regulatory and political conditions.

The board said its work in the operating companies and reductions in head office costs should improve medium-term trading, and stated that the 2026 outturn is no indicator of 2027 or future performance. That is a management view rather than a forecast with figures attached.

What to watch

The next scheduled disclosure is likely to be a further trading update early in 2027 followed by full-year results; in 2026 the group issued a trading update on 23 February and final results on 5 May. Investors will also watch for completion of the Barnesbeg sale, which the company said it would announce if it occurs, and for any further asset sales or portfolio initiatives under the group's value enhancement plan, and progress on its stated growth projects.