Key Highlights

  • Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO) is in focus as Mining stocks helped lift the FTSE 100 by 1.8% on 4 November 2026.
  • Third-quarter copper production rose 7% from the previous quarter to 151,900 tonnes, though nine-month output was down 8.3% year on year.
  • The group kept its 2026 guidance of 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes and set 2027 guidance of 630,000 to 690,000 tonnes.
  • Cash cost guidance before by-product credits was raised to $2.60 to $2.70 per pound because of higher diesel prices.

Why Antofagasta Is in Focus Today

Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO), the Chilean copper miner controlled by the Luksic family, is back in the spotlight on the FTSE 100 as mining shares led a market rebound. On Wednesday, 4 November 2026, the index rose 1.8% to 10,829.21, with banks and miners driving gains after the US midterm elections weakened the dollar and lifted Commodity sentiment. The rally followed a difficult Tuesday, when mining and bank shares weighed on the market as copper prices weakened.

Antofagasta shares had already shown signs of recovery earlier in the week, rising 2.7% to 3,214p on Monday, 2 November. The stock remains sensitive to copper prices, Chinese Demand and the company's own production performance, which has been uneven in 2026.

Third-Quarter Production Update

On 15 October, Antofagasta reported third-quarter copper production of 151,900 tonnes, up 7% on the previous quarter and its highest quarterly output of the year. Los Pelambres increased production by 17.5% quarter on quarter to 79,300 tonnes, recovering from disruption in July when extreme rains led the Chilean government to declare a state of catastrophe in the Coquimbo region. Copper grades and throughput at Los Pelambres are expected to increase further in the fourth quarter.

Over the first nine months, copper output fell 8.3% to 436,900 tonnes, mainly because of lower ore grades at Centinela Concentrates and lower recoveries at Centinela Cathodes. By-product molybdenum production fell 21.1% to 9,000 tonnes, while gold output reached 137,000 ounces.

Guidance and Costs

The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes, implying a solid fourth quarter. It also set 2027 guidance of 630,000 to 690,000 tonnes, reflecting higher grades at Los Pelambres, partly offset by lower grades at Centinela Concentrates. Some investors had hoped for a higher 2027 range, and the shares fell as much as 7% on the day of the update.

Antofagasta raised its 2026 guidance for cash costs before by-product credits to $2.60 to $2.70 per pound, from $2.40 to $2.60, because of persistently higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Net cash cost guidance of $1.15 to $1.35 per pound and Capital Expenditure guidance of $3.4 billion were unchanged.

Growth Projects

Chief executive Iván Arriagada said construction of major projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres is progressing well and both are in their final phases, with commissioning expected in 2027 as planned. These projects are central to the group's plan to grow copper output by around 30% by the end of the decade. Labour relations are also in focus: two unions at Centinela went on strike after the quarter end before a new 36-month agreement was reached, and wage talks at Los Pelambres are another Factor to monitor.

Balance Sheet and Dividends

Antofagasta pays dividends based on a percentage of underlying earnings, so payouts rise and fall with copper prices and production. The heavy capital spending programme, at around $3.4 billion this year, means investors watch net Debt and free Cash Flow closely. Once the Centinela and Los Pelambres expansion projects are commissioned in 2027, capital spending is expected to ease and cash generation to improve, which could support higher returns to shareholders. The company's controlling Shareholder structure, with the Luksic family owning a majority stake, has historically provided stability and a long-term approach to Investment in Chile. Investors also follow the group's water strategy, including desalination plants, which are critical for operating in the arid north of the country.

Market Context on 4 November

Copper has been supported in 2026 by demand from electrification, power grids and data centres, while Supply growth has been constrained by declining grades and project delays across the industry. The US midterm result, with its implications for AI infrastructure policy, adds a new variable for copper demand forecasts. A weaker dollar typically supports metal prices. Lower oil prices, with Brent falling below $100 a barrel, could also ease diesel costs, which have pushed up mining expenses this year.

Risks to Consider

Risks include copper price volatility, weaker Chinese demand, operational setbacks, water and weather issues in Chile, labour disputes, cost Inflation and Chilean regulatory or tax changes. Delays to the 2027 project start-ups would affect the growth outlook.

What Investors Are Watching Next

Investors will watch copper prices, Chinese economic data and the fourth-quarter production report, usually published in January, to confirm that full-year guidance has been met. Progress on the Centinela and Los Pelambres projects, the outcome of wage negotiations and any easing in diesel costs will also shape sentiment toward Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO).