Key Highlights

  • Fresnillo plc (LSE:FRES) advanced on 9 November 2026 as precious metals miners joined a broad FTSE 100 rally.
  • The FTSE 100 closed up 1.02% at 10,782.87, with gold-linked and copper-linked miners among the leaders.
  • Gold traded around $4,135 an ounce earlier in the week, with the metal up about 7% so far in November.
  • Third-quarter silver output was 10.3 million ounces and gold output 135,053 ounces, both lower than a year earlier.
  • Full-year guidance was kept at 42.0 to 46.5 million ounces of silver and 500,000 to 550,000 ounces of gold.

Why Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) Is in Focus Today

Fresnillo plc (LSE:FRES) was one of the notable risers in London on Monday 9 November 2026 as precious metals miners participated in a broad advance. The FTSE 100 closed up 1.02% at 10,782.87, helped by rising Mining shares, a sharp fall in oil prices and a rebound on Wall Street. Gold inched higher as crude declined, reinforcing a rally that has already rewarded holders of the world's leading primary silver producer.

The move builds on strength seen earlier in the week. Gold climbed to around $4,135 an ounce on 5 November, taking its gain so far in November to about 7%, as dollar weakness and falling US Treasury yields boosted Demand for bullion. Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining had already risen roughly 11% and 13% respectively over two sessions by that point, underlining how sensitive the shares are to precious metals momentum.

Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop

Precious metals have been supported by a combination of geopolitical risk, Central Bank buying, lower real yields and investor demand for diversification. On Monday, the easing of tensions after Donald Trump said new attacks on Iran were unlikely while talks progress helped drive oil lower. A lower oil price can reduce Inflation concerns, which in turn supports expectations for easier Monetary Policy and tends to benefit non-yielding Assets such as gold and silver.

Silver has an additional industrial dimension, with demand from solar panels, electronics and electrification. For Fresnillo, which produces tens of millions of ounces of silver each year alongside several hundred thousand ounces of gold, this dual exposure creates meaningful Earnings Leverage when both metals are strong.

Third-Quarter Production Recap

Fresnillo's latest production report, published on 21 October, showed attributable silver output of 10.3 million ounces for the third quarter, down 5.5% from the second quarter and 11.6% from a year earlier. Gold production was 135,053 ounces, down 12.8% sequentially and 10.7% year on year. Year-to-date silver output stands at about 32.4 million ounces, down 11.5%, while gold is at roughly 425,900 ounces, down 8.4%.

Management attributed the decline to lower ore grades at Juanicipio, Saucito and San Julián and to reduced volumes of ore processed at Herradura and Ciénega. Chief Executive Octavio Alvídrez said production was in line with expectations and that the company remains on track to meet full-year guidance. There were bright spots, including a 74.9% year-on-year increase in gold output at the Fresnillo mine, supported by higher grades and improved recovery.

Guidance and Outlook

Fresnillo maintained its 2026 outlook of 42.0 to 46.5 million ounces of attributable silver and 500,000 to 550,000 ounces of attributable gold. Silver equivalent production is expected at 82 to 91 million ounces, with lead of 54,000 to 59,000 tonnes and zinc of 85,000 to 95,000 tonnes. For context, 2025 production was 48.7 million ounces of silver and 600,287 ounces of gold, so this year represents a step down in volumes even as prices have moved sharply higher.

The company has said production expectations for 2027 and 2028 will be issued with its fourth-quarter production report. That update is likely to be an important catalyst, because investors want to know when volumes can stabilise or grow. Preparatory work is also continuing to resume operations at Noche Buena in 2027.

Balance Sheet, Dividends and Acquisitions

One reason Fresnillo remains popular is its financial strength. In 2025 the group delivered record profitability, paid dividends totalling $950 million and ended the year with a net cash position of about $1.9 billion. The company also agreed an all-cash Acquisition of Canadian gold assets valued at around C$780 million, a transaction that was due to close in the first quarter of 2026 and signals appetite to diversify its jurisdictional footprint beyond Mexico.

Risks to Watch

The principal risk is a Reversal in precious metals. A stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields or a decisive diplomatic breakthrough that reduces safe-haven demand could weigh on gold and silver. Operational issues are another factor, since declining grades at several mines have already reduced output. Mexican policy and tax developments, the peso Exchange Rate and inflation in local costs also influence margins.

What Investors Are Watching Next

The immediate focus is on gold and silver prices, US inflation data and signals from the Federal Reserve about the path of interest rates. Geopolitical headlines, including talks involving Iran and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine scheduled for 10 and 11 November, may drive safe-haven flows. Further out, the fourth-quarter production report will provide the 2027 and 2028 outlook, and the full-year results will show how much of the price windfall converts into dividends. Investors will also look for updates on integration of acquired assets and on the restart of Noche Buena.