Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd.

Highlights

  • SBG Securities’ Tim Clark assigns a BUY rating with a price target of GBp 420, reflecting a 37.08% upside potential.

  • Glencore initiates a USD 1 billion share buyback and gains a 16.4% stake in Bunge following the Viterra merger.

  • Q1 2025 production shows resilience in cobalt, zinc, and steelmaking coal, with full-year guidance reaffirmed.

Global commodities and mining leader Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN.L) has received a bullish BUY rating from SBG Securities analyst Tim Clark, who set a target price of GBp 420. The forecast suggests a potential 37.08% gain from the current share price of GBp 306.40. 

The endorsement likely to comes amid Glencore’s recently launched share buyback programme and strategic benefits from the now-completed Viterra-Bunge merger. 

USD 1 Billion Share Buyback and Bunge Stake Create Value

Recently, Glencore commenced a USD 1 billion share repurchase programme, aiming to reduce capital and enhance shareholder value. Approved by shareholders at the 2025 AGM, the buyback is set to conclude by the FY25 earnings release in February 2026, contingent on market conditions.

In parallel, the company finalised the merger of its agribusiness unit Viterra with Bunge Global S.A. As part of the deal, Glencore secured 32.8 million Bunge shares, representing a 16.4% equity stake, and received approximately USD 900 million in cash. These NYSE-listed shares are considered surplus capital under Glencore’s net debt management framework.

Q1 Production

Glencore reported mixed production results for Q1 2025, with notable strengths in cobalt, zinc, and steelmaking coal:

  • Copper: Own-sourced copper output fell 30% YoY to 167,900 tonnes, mainly due to reduced mining rates and recoveries at Collahuasi, Antapaccay, and KCC.

  • Cobalt: Production surged 44% to 9,500 tonnes, driven by higher grades and volumes at Mutanda.

  • Zinc: Output rose 4% to 213,600 tonnes, supported by higher grades from Antamina and increased Australian production.

  • Nickel: At 18,800 tonnes, nickel production was flat YoY when adjusted for Koniambo’s prior contribution.

  • Ferrochrome: Attributable output declined 7% to 277,000 tonnes due to proactive market-related adjustments.

  • Steelmaking Coal: Production totaled 8.3 million tonnes, with 6.6 million tonnes from the newly acquired Elk Valley Resources. Australian output rose 21% to 1.7 million tonnes.

  • Energy Coal: Production dropped 7% to 23.4 million tonnes due to planned mine closures in Australia.

2025 Production Guidance Remains Intact

Glencore reaffirmed its FY25 production guidance across all major commodities:

Commodity FY24 Actual FY25 Guidance H1 Weighting H2 Weighting
Copper (kt) 951.6 850–910 42% 58%
Cobalt (kt) 38.2 40–45 45% 55%
Zinc (kt) 905.0 930–990 51% 49%
Nickel (kt) 82.3 74–86 46% 54%
Steelmaking Coal (mt) 19.9 30–35 50% 50%
Energy Coal (mt) 99.6 87–95 51% 49%

Despite copper production challenges in Q1, the reaffirmed guidance signals management's confidence in meeting year-end targets.