Highlights

  • Glencore confirms early Rio Tinto discussions for a potential all-share merger, with Rio acquiring GLEN via scheme of arrangement; no deal certainty under Rule 2.5 of the Code.
  • Copper futures stabilize at USD 5.8/oz amid tariff risks, supply deficits by 2030, and demand from renewables/data centers, despite China headwinds.
  • Q3 copper production rose 36% quarter-on-quarter (63,600 tonnes higher).

Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) shares spiked 42.50 GBX (10.29%) to 455.50 GBX by midday, outpacing the STOXX Europe 600's 0.57% gain to 607.29. Year-on-year gains now hit 24.56%. The trigger? Preliminary merger talks with Rio Tinto. But copper's stubborn rally whispers a bigger story.

Merger Talks Trigger Surge

Glencore noted media speculation and confirmed early-stage discussions with Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited. The potential deal could combine some or all businesses, with Rio Tinto expected to acquire Glencore through a scheme of arrangement. Rio Tinto echoed the statement, reserving rights to adjust terms or consideration. Both emphasize no certainty on any transaction under Rule 2.5 of the Code.

Copper Market Backdrop

Copper prices stabilized near USD 5.8 per ounce on January 9 after a two-day selloff. Investors reassess tightening supply against global demand. Trump administration tariff concerns could divert refined metals to the US, limiting other markets. BHP executives highlighted a potential structural deficit by 2030-2035, calling for more production.

Demand ties to power grids, renewables, and data centers. China construction remains a headwind.

Production Update

Glencore CEO Gary Nagle reported Q3 2025 production gains, especially in copper and coal. Copper output rose 36% from Q2, with 63,600 tonnes added from higher grades at KCC (21,700 tonnes), Antapaccay (16,800 tonnes), and Antamina (11,800 tonnes).

Full-year 2025 copper guidance narrowed to 850-875 kt, matching prior ranges after Q3 performance. Own-sourced production hit 951.6 kt in 2024.

Company Profile

Glencore ranks among the largest diversified natural resources firms, producing and marketing over 60 commodities. Core metals include copper, cobalt, zinc, nickel, and ferroalloys. The group markets aluminium, alumina, and iron ore from third parties.