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Highlights

  • Glencore shares rose 3.25% on 18 February 2026, extending 12-month gains to 41.93%.
  • Company’s 2025 Adjusted EBITDA declined 6% year-on-year, impacted by weaker coal prices.
  • Second-half 2025 Adjusted EBITDA jumped 49% versus first half.
  • 2025 net income attributable to shareholders rebounded to USD 0.4 billion from a loss in 2024.
  • Total 2026 shareholder distribution set at USD 0.17 per share, equivalent to approximately USD 2 billion.
  • Net debt remained stable in 2025 at USD 11.2 billion

Glencore plc (LSE:GLEN) shares climbed 3.25% to GBX 501.80 during the morning session on 18 February 2026. Today’s price movement coincided with the release its 2025 full-year results. The company’s 2025 performance was mixed at first glance, but momentum clearly accelerated in the second half of the year.

 The stock is now up 41.93% over the past year, reflecting improving investor confidence in the mining and commodities cycle.

2025 Earnings Reflect Coal Weakness, But H2 Shows Favourable Recovery

For the full year 2025, Adjusted EBITDA declined 6% year-on-year to USD 13.5 billion, primarily due to lower energy coal and steelmaking coal prices. Industrial Adjusted EBITDA also fell 6% in 2025, reflecting the same pricing pressure in coal markets.

However, the underlying trend improved significantly in the second half of 2025. Overall Adjusted EBITDA in H2 2025 increased 49% compared to H1 2025, supported by favourable metals prices and improved production volumes, particularly copper.

Industrial Adjusted EBITDA in H2 2025 rose 65% versus H1 2025, while Marketing Adjusted EBIT in H2 2025 increased 15% compared with the first half.

Copper was a standout contributor. H2 2025 copper production exceeded 500,000 tonnes, almost 50% higher than H1 2025, driven by improved grades and recoveries at key operations.

Management reiterated its ambition to exceed 1 million tonnes annualised copper production by the end of 2028 and target approximately 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, reinforcing its copper-led growth strategy.

Income Recovery and Cash Flow Dynamics

Net income attributable to equity holders in 2025 returned to a profit of USD 0.4 billion, compared with a loss in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year improvement. Net income before significant items reached USD 2.3 billion in 2025.

Cash generated from operating activities before working capital, interest and tax declined 5% in 2025, reflecting the lower Adjusted EBITDA outcome for the year.

Mining margins in 2025 remained solid despite pricing headwinds, with margins of 30% in metals operations, 36% in steelmaking coal and 19% in energy coal.

Portfolio Optimisation and Capital Discipline

Glencore continued reshaping its portfolio in 2025, acquiring the Quechua copper project in Peru while disposing of non-core assets, including the Pasar copper smelter in the Philippines and the Puerto Nuevo coal export terminal in Colombia.

Industrial capital expenditure in 2025 was 10% lower than 2024, excluding specific adjustments, highlighting tighter capital discipline. Meanwhile, net funding increased 8% year-on-year to USD 39.4 billion on 31 December 2025, primarily due to higher readily marketable inventories as copper prices rose 44% during 2025.

Net debt at the end of 2025 remained broadly unchanged year-on-year at USD 11.2 billion. The net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio stood at 0.83x, indicating a relatively conservative balance sheet position

Shareholder Returns and Free Cash Flow

In line with its shareholder returns framework, Glencore announced a 2026 base distribution of USD 0.10 per share, equivalent to approximately USD 1.2 billion, calculated based on 2025 cash flows. Additionally, a top-up distribution of USD 0.07 per share, around USD 0.8 billion, has been proposed.

The total planned cash distribution for 2026 is therefore USD 0.17 per share, equating to approximately USD 2 billion, to be paid in two instalments.

At current commodity spot prices, the company estimates illustrative annualised free cash flow of approximately USD 7 billion, underpinned by diversified commodity exposure and a strong marketing business. 

Investor Takeaway

While full-year 2025 results were pressured by softer coal prices, the second half rebound, favourable copper performance and stable leverage appear to have reassured investors. With shares up 41.93% over the past year, the market is increasingly pricing in Glencore’s transition toward becoming one of the world’s largest copper producers over the next decade.

The focus now shifts to execution, delivering operational targets in 2026 while advancing copper growth options and maintaining disciplined capital returns.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

  1. Why did Glencore shares rise on 18 February 2026?

Shares gained 3.25% after the company reported strong second-half 2025 earnings momentum, stable net debt and a USD 2 billion shareholder distribution plan for 2026.

  1. Why did Adjusted EBITDA decline in 2025?

Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 fell 6% year-on-year primarily due to lower energy and steelmaking coal prices, partially offset by stronger metals pricing in the second half.

  1. What is Glencore’s copper production target?

Glencore aims to exceed 1 million tonnes annualised copper production by the end of 2028 and target approximately 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.