Solid cash flow, small cash gain

Greatland Resources (LSE:GGP) generated A$289m of operating Cash Flow in the three months to 30 September 2026, yet its cash balance rose by only about A$25m. The gap reflects a Business now paying large tax bills while starting construction at its Havieron project, and it frames the main financial question for the gold and copper producer over the coming year. The figures come from its September quarterly activities report, published on 26 October.

The company

Greatland, listed on the ASX and AIM, owns the Telfer gold and copper mine and the nearby Havieron deposit in Western Australia's Paterson region. Telfer provides current output and cash, while Havieron is intended to become the longer-term source of ore. LSE:GGP took full ownership of both Assets in a transaction with Newmont completed in December 2024. The company reports in Australian dollars.

What the quarter delivered

Gold production was 70,131 ounces, down from 79,100 ounces in the June quarter, alongside 2,927 tonnes of copper. Sales reached 71,901 ounces of gold and 2,714 tonnes of copper at realised prices of A$5,980 per ounce and A$16,653 per tonne. Net Revenue was A$485m. All-in sustaining costs rose to A$2,925 per ounce from A$2,312 in the June quarter.

The gap between the realised gold price and all-in sustaining costs was roughly A$3,055 per ounce, a wide Margin even after the cost increase. Quarterly costs sat near the bottom of the company's full-year range, leaving some room for further pressure before guidance would be at risk.

Closing cash stood at A$1.314bn with no drawn debt. Including A$475m of undrawn revolving Credit facilities, available Liquidity was about A$1.789bn.

Where the money went

Growth and capitalised exploration spending totalled A$96.7m, including A$45.2m at Havieron, A$37.2m at Telfer and A$13.3m on resource development. Telfer spending covered a tailings storage expansion, pit stripping, fleet renewal and underground development. The company also paid A$100m in tax instalments, with a catch-up payment of around A$155m expected in December 2026 and monthly instalments continuing through the financial year.

Havieron construction formally began after the remaining secondary approvals were received. Surface works on evaporation ponds and a drill-rig pad are under way, Mining continues on the access declines, and Lycopodium has been appointed to manage engineering, procurement and construction. Havieron already accounted for almost half of the quarter's growth and exploration outlay, a share likely to rise as construction gathers pace.

Why it matters and the risks

The Balance Sheet gives Greatland substantial room to fund Havieron internally, which reduces the likelihood of needing to raise Capital or Debt for the project. However, heavier tax payments, rising costs and construction spending mean that solid revenue will not translate fully into cash growth. Output fell quarter on quarter, and the company expects production to be weighted to the second half of the financial year, so delivery against guidance depends on later months. Gold put options covering almost 150,000 ounces to September 2027, at strikes of A$4,200 to A$5,200, protect against a price fall while leaving exposure to higher prices. A capital cost update, construction schedule or first-production date for Havieron was not included in the reports seen.

Operating cash flow and the cash balance

The A$289m of Operating Cash Flow compares with a rise in cash of about A$25m, so roughly A$264m was spent elsewhere. Known items include growth and exploration spending of A$96.7m and tax instalments of A$100m, which together account for A$196.7m. The remaining amount of about A$67m reflects other investing and financing items, such as sustaining capital and Lease payments.

Tax is a rising element. A catch-up payment of around A$155m in December 2026 is greater than the A$100m paid in the quarter, so the December quarter is likely to show a further large outflow before monthly instalments settle.

Unit economics

Net revenue of A$485m from 71,901 ounces of gold and 2,714 tonnes of copper reflects both metals. At the realised copper price of A$16,653 per tonne, copper sales were worth about A$45m, so gold made up most of the revenue. The All-In Sustaining Cost of A$2,925 per ounce is a measure that includes sustaining capital and administration as well as mining costs, and its increase from A$2,312 was a rise of about 26%. Even so, the margin per ounce stayed wide.

Production of 70,131 ounces, compared with 79,100 ounces in the June quarter, was about 11% lower, which helps explain the higher unit cost, because fixed costs were spread over fewer ounces.

The Havieron build

Spending at Havieron of A$45.2m was the largest of the three components, ahead of A$37.2m at Telfer and A$13.3m on resource development. Construction started after secondary approvals were received, and work on evaporation ponds and a drill-rig pad is under way. Lycopodium's engineering, procurement and construction management role gives the project an experienced contractor. Because the access declines are already being mined, work can continue on ore access while surface infrastructure is built.

Liquidity

Cash of A$1.314bn, with no drawn debt and A$475m of undrawn credit, gives liquidity of about A$1.789bn. Against quarterly growth spending of A$96.7m, that is about 18 quarters of spending at the current rate, so funding does not look like a constraint. The question for investors is more likely how the balance is used, whether on development, tax, returns or acquisitions.

Ownership of the assets

Full ownership of Telfer and Havieron since December 2024 means all of the cash flow from both belongs to the company, with no partner sharing in costs or returns. The advantage is control and full exposure; the cost is that Greatland carries the entire development spending at Havieron itself.

Gold price sensitivity

The realised gold price of A$5,980 per ounce is more than twice the all-in sustaining cost, so changes in the gold price have a large effect on cash flow. A fall of 10% in the price would reduce the margin by about A$598 per ounce, or about 20% of the current margin on the figures above. Copper adds a second price exposure, at a realised price of A$16,653 per tonne.

Guidance and next steps

LSE:GGP maintained guidance for the year to 30 June 2027 of 260,000 to 300,000 ounces of gold at all-in sustaining costs of A$2,900 to A$3,330 per ounce. The December tax payment and the December quarter report, expected in January, are the next markers for cash, with Havieron construction progress likely to be a central focus.