Donald Trump's second term in the White House is running into serious political weather. A widening cluster of national polls shows the president's Job/">Job approval rating sliding toward the mid-30s, with voter confidence dropping across the issues he made central to his 2024 campaign — the economy, immigration, the cost of living and US standing in the world. Reuters/Ipsos has the president on 36 per cent approval against 62 per cent disapproval, a net rating of minus 26. The American Research Group has him lower still, at 32 per cent approval against 63 per cent disapproval, a net rating of minus 31 that represents a fresh second-term low.

The trajectory matters for more than the next news cycle. With midterm elections approaching, with crucial legislative battles still unresolved on the Hill and with markets pricing the path of US policy on tariffs, taxation and energy, a sustained loss of public confidence in the administration has financial as well as political implications. For UK and global Business/">Business audiences, the question is no longer simply whether the second Trump term will be disruptive, but how the politics of disruption will be priced as voter patience wears thin.

The slide has been broad-based. Approval ratings have fallen across age groups, regions and demographic categories. Independents — the swing voters that decided the 2024 election — have moved sharply against the president, with one closely watched survey putting him 38 points underwater with the group, the weakest reading for any president at a comparable point in a second term. Among male voters, traditionally a stronger demographic for Mr Trump, approval has slipped to new lows for the term.

Where the confidence has cracked

The most consequential erosion has come on the economy. For the first time since May 2010, Democrats now lead Republicans as the party Americans trust more to handle the economy, by roughly 52 per cent to 48 per cent in one widely cited survey. That Reversal/">Reversal is a profound shift for a Republican president whose 2024 campaign rested heavily on a promise to lower prices, raise wages and 'unleash' US industry. With petrol pushing past $4 a gallon, grocery prices stubbornly elevated and consumer confidence indicators softening, voters appear to be reaching the same verdict on his economic stewardship.

Pew Research's recent work shows that, alongside the headline approval slide, the share of Americans saying they support the president's policies and plans has slipped notably from a year ago. Fewer voters express confidence in his ability to handle key issues, including managing the federal budget, dealing with foreign leaders and conducting an effective immigration policy. Confidence in the president's ability to make wise decisions about economic policy has fallen by double digits in some surveys.

Foreign policy has emerged as another point of strain. The ongoing war between Israel and Iran, the disruption of shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the unresolved Ukraine settlement and the recurring Tariff/">Tariff disputes with China, the European Union and the United Kingdom have together produced a sense that the world feels less stable and that America's role in it has become more contentious than the administration's promised 'peace through strength' rhetoric had suggested.

Tariffs and the cost of living

On the economy, the most politically potent storyline has been tariffs. Successive rounds of duties on Chinese, European and a range of other imports have, by every credible estimate, fed through into higher consumer prices in the United States. The administration argues that the long-term industrial benefits will outweigh the short-term cost, but voters are responding to the sticker shock visible at petrol stations, supermarkets and on housing-related goods.

UK exporters have felt the impact as well. Despite a recent partial unwinding of duties on Scotch whisky, broader UK exports to the United States remain meaningfully below their pre-Tariff/">Tariff baselines. American consumers, in turn, are paying more for imported goods, with several large retailers warning that further price rises are likely if Tariff/">Tariff rates remain at current levels through the summer shopping season.

For voters who took the president's promise of cheaper energy and lower prices at Face Value, the gap between rhetoric and reality has been corrosive. Polling consistently shows that economic anxiety is the single most powerful driver of his slide in approval. If Inflation/">Inflation reaccelerates from current levels — particularly if oil prices stay near $120 a barrel — the political pressure on the administration will intensify further.

Immigration and the southern border

Immigration was a defining theme of the 2024 campaign, and the administration moved swiftly in its first months to tighten enforcement, expand detention capacity and signal a more restrictive posture toward asylum claims. Headline crossing numbers at the southern border have fallen sharply, and the administration cites that data as evidence that its approach is working.

Yet voter sentiment on the broader handling of the issue has become more conflicted. High-profile enforcement actions, legal challenges to deportation procedures and concerns about due process for long-settled migrants have produced a more critical reception in some swing-state electorates. Polling on whether the president's immigration approach has been 'broadly fair' is sharply divided along partisan lines, but the share of independent voters who view it favourably has eroded.

For Business/">Business, the relevant questions are practical. Sectors that depend heavily on migrant labour — agriculture, hospitality, construction, healthcare and parts of the technology workforce — are reporting recruitment difficulties and rising labour costs. The administration's restrictions on certain skilled-worker visa categories have drawn criticism from US technology companies that argue access to global talent is essential to US competitiveness in artificial intelligence and other strategic industries.

Markets and the political risk premium

US Equity/">Equity indices have remained close to record highs through much of the second term, supported by strong Earnings/">Earnings from the largest technology companies and by the resilience of US consumer spending. That apparent disconnect between market performance and political mood is not unusual at this stage of a presidency, but investors and corporate strategists are increasingly attentive to the way that voter discontent could translate into policy or legislative action.

Bond markets have been more sensitive. The combination of unfunded tax measures, large deficits and political pressure on the Federal Reserve has produced episodes of higher long-end yields and a steeper curve. Foreign Demand/">Demand for US Treasuries, while still substantial, has shown signs of moderation, with some sovereign holders quietly diversifying. The dollar has been more volatile than in many recent years, reflecting both interest-rate dynamics and shifting perceptions of US institutional credibility.

For UK and European investors, the practical implications cut several ways. Sterling and euro investors with US Equity/">Equity exposure have benefited from dollar strength in some periods and suffered from it in others. Multinationals reporting in dollars have seen translation effects swing both ways. Corporate treasurers managing transatlantic Supply/">Supply chains have had to plan for Tariff/">Tariff regimes that change with relatively little warning.

The midterms loom

Polling at this stage of a presidency does not necessarily predict the outcome of midterm elections, which remain almost two years away in their full congressional form. Nevertheless, the structure of voter sentiment now developing carries a familiar warning signal for any administration: the president's net approval among independents is well below the threshold historically associated with poor midterm performance, and his polling on the economy, traditionally the single most important driver of midterm results, is now a clear net negative.

Democrats now lead in the generic congressional ballot in most polling averages, although the lead remains within the range that historically translates into close, district-by-district contests rather than landslides. Several Republican incumbents in swing-state Senate races and competitive House districts have begun to put public distance between themselves and aspects of the administration's agenda, particularly on tariffs and on certain culture-war flashpoints.

If the trend in approval continues, the administration could face a House controlled by the opposition from January 2027 onwards, with material implications for legislative ambitions, oversight activity and the trajectory of further trade and immigration policy. Markets historically welcome divided government, but the specifics of the policy agenda still in train mean that this cycle's reaction may be less predictable.

Implications for businesses and markets

For corporate boards, the political signal in the polling is a reminder that policy Volatility/">Volatility may rise, not fall, over the months ahead. An administration under pressure has stronger incentives to deliver visible wins, which often means more aggressive Tariff/">Tariff enforcement, executive-order driven regulatory shifts and high-profile interventions in individual sectors. Companies with substantial US operations should expect a noisier policy environment and plan their Capital Expenditure, hiring and pricing decisions accordingly.

For investors, the likely implication is that political risk should remain a meaningful component of asset-allocation thinking, even in a market that has so far priced political noise lightly. Sectors most exposed to Tariff/">Tariff or executive-order risk — autos, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, retailers with deep Import/">Import exposure — may continue to trade with elevated headline-driven Volatility/">Volatility. Defensive sectors and companies with pricing power and clean balance sheets are likely to retain a relative premium.

For policymakers in the UK, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and other US trading partners, the political pressure on the White House is itself a variable. A president with sliding approval ratings may be more inclined to deliver tough-looking policy moves on trade or immigration to shore up his political base, even if those moves complicate negotiations and create economic friction in the short term.

What might change the trajectory

Voter confidence in a sitting president can recover, sometimes sharply. A successful diplomatic breakthrough — for example a credible de-escalation in the Middle East, an enforceable settlement in Ukraine or a substantive trade deal that lowers prices visibly for US consumers — could lift the president's standing materially. A run of strong, broad-based jobs reports without an Inflation/">Inflation reacceleration could ease the economic pressure that has been the single largest drag on approval.

Conversely, a sharper slowdown in the economy, a further leg up in oil prices, a renewed bout of stubborn Inflation/">Inflation, or a high-profile policy Reversal/">Reversal could push approval lower still. The historical record suggests that, once an administration drops below 40 per cent approval for a sustained period, the political and legislative Options/">Options narrow markedly.

The next major political markers — the May and June economic data, the summer foreign-policy calendar and the run-up to the autumn primary season — will be watched closely both in Washington and in markets that have often been calmer about political risk than the underlying numbers might Warrant/">Warrant.

Conclusion

Mr Trump's second term is not in crisis, but it is unmistakably under pressure. Voters who installed him with a majority eighteen months ago are signalling, in poll after poll, that the lived experience of his second term has not matched the campaign promise. Whether that gap is closed by visible policy wins, by an upturn in the economy or by a more measured tone in foreign policy will define the political contours of the year ahead.

For Business/">Business leaders, investors and policymakers across the United Kingdom and the rest of the world, the most useful posture is to take the polling seriously without overreacting to any single survey. Public sentiment has become a moving variable in the policy mix, and ignoring it would be as much a mistake as treating it as destiny.