Volume up, value per order down

Victorian Plumbing, the online bathroom retailer that also owns the MFI homewares brand, grew Revenue by about 11% to about £344m in the year to 30 September 2026, according to its trading update of 13 October. (LSE:VIC) The composition of that growth is the focus here: total orders rose by about 13%, while average order value fell by about 5%. Understanding why shoppers are spending less per order, yet ordering more often, helps frame what the 8 December preliminary results may show.

The analysis below combines the October update with half-year results published on 19 May 2026.

What the full-year update said

Revenue of about £344m compared with £310.0m in FY25 and with company-compiled analyst consensus of £328.4m. (LSE:VIC) Adjusted profit before tax is expected to be about £22m, against £21.8m and consensus of £21.7m. The core Victorian Plumbing Business made about £26m, while MFI lost about £4m. Year-end cash was about £25m, up from £17.7m. Revenue included about £7m from the recently acquired Sovereign Transport Services haulage business and about £3m from MFI.

Tiles and flooring revenue jumped about 76% to around £31m, and trade revenue rose about 6% to around £78m. (LSE:VIC) The company said the wider repair, maintenance and improvement market declined 1.7%, citing Barclays consumer spending data.

Why baskets are getting smaller

The half-year results explain the mechanism. (LSE:VIC) In the six months to 31 March, orders rose 12% to 609,000 and average order value fell 3% to £274. The company attributed the lower value to more tiles-and-flooring-only orders, which are typically smaller than full bathroom purchases. Items per basket actually increased to 3.5 from 3.3. Management also said it had not passed on price increases during the year, in contrast to some competitors. The chief executive said in October that the business had gained market share, improved Marketing efficiency and increased Brand awareness during the year, while describing the consumer backdrop as challenging.

With order value down about 3% in the first half and about 5% for the full year, the second-half decline must have been steeper than 5%, on our arithmetic. The update does not say whether that reflects further category mix, MFI's lower-value orders, or pricing.

Margin implications

Smaller orders are not necessarily less profitable, but the mix matters. At the half year, the company said tiles and flooring gross Margin remained slightly below the group average as it invested in pricing to build scale. Group gross margin dipped to 49.7% from 50.2%, while own-brand gross margin held at 54% and third-party margin fell to 29% from 33%. Marketing efficiency partly compensated: spend fell to 28.0% of retail revenue from 28.8%.

On our reading, the model is working if order growth keeps outpacing the decline in value per order while delivery and marketing costs per order fall. Full-year detail will be needed to confirm this.

Risks to the approach

Risks include persistently weak consumer spending on home improvement, price competition in tiles, delivery cost pressures on smaller orders, continuing MFI losses and the possibility that holding prices squeezes margins if input costs rise. Trade growth of about 6% lagged the group as a whole, despite the company's stated ambitions in that channel.

What comes next

Preliminary results for FY26 are scheduled for 8 December 2026. Investors are likely to look for second-half order value, gross margin by category and delivery costs. The shares closed the 3 November session at 84.2p, based on LSE delayed data. The trading update figures are unaudited and approximate. The company has also said its distribution centre is generating operational efficiencies, which should help it absorb the higher number of smaller orders it now handles each year.