The first-quarter 2024 earnings season is in full swing. This will be the first big week of this reporting cycle, with more than 500 companies slated to report their financial numbers. So far, earnings results are better than expected. The earnings results and management guidance will be crucial for market participants to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.

As of Apr 19, 71 companies on the S&P 500 Index reported their financial numbers. Total earnings for these 71 index members are up 9.4% from the same period last year on 4.5% higher revenues, with 77.5% beating EPS estimates and 63.4% beating revenue estimates.

At present, total earnings of the S&P 500 Index in first-quarter 2024 are expected to be up 3.8% on 3.9% higher revenues. This follows the 6.8% earnings growth on 4% higher revenues in fourth-quarter 2023 and 3.8% earnings growth on 2.2% higher revenues in third-quarter 2023.

Meanwhile, several large-cap stocks are set to beat on first-quarter earnings this week. A handful of them currently carry a favorable Zacks Rank. The combination of a favorable Zacks Rank and an earnings beat should drive their stock prices in the near term.

Our Top Picks

We have narrowed our search to five large-cap stocks that are poised to beat on first-quarter earnings results this week. Each of these stocks carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and has a positive Earnings ESP. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, the chance of an earnings beat is as high as 70%. These stocks are anticipated to appreciate after their earnings release. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The chart below shows the price performance of our five picks in the last quarter. Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Brown & Brown Inc. BRO has a compelling portfolio, along with an impressive growth trajectory driven by organic and inorganic initiatives across all its segments. Buyouts and collaborations have enhanced BRO’s existing capabilities and extended its geographic foothold. Strategic efforts continue to drive commission and fees.

BRO’s solid capital position, backed by a strong operational environment, places it well for long-term growth. BRO’s sturdy performance has been driving cash flow, enabling it to deploy capital in shareholder-friendly moves.

Zacks Rank #1 Brown & Brown has an Earnings ESP of +1.12%. It has an expected earnings growth rate of 26.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 4.1% over the last 60 days.



Brown & Brown recorded earnings surprises in the last four reported quarters, with an average beat of 11.2%. The company is set to release earnings results on Apr 22, after the closing bell.

Packaging Corporation of America PKG has been gaining from strong growth in e-commerce activities that continue to support packaging demand. Stable demand for food, beverages, medication and other consumer products bodes well for the Packaging segment. PKG anticipates higher total corrugated product shipments in 2024, backed by continued strong demand in the first quarter with two additional shipping days.

In the Paper segment, PKG expects an improved mix to move prices slightly higher. The conversion of the No. 3 paper machine at PKG’s Jackson, AL-based mill to liner board in a phased manner will aid growth.

Zacks Rank #2 Packaging Corporation of America has an Earnings ESP of +3.66%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 1.6% over the last 30 days. Packaging Corporation of America recorded earnings surprises in three out of the last four reported quarters, with an average beat of 10.1%. The company is set to release earnings results on Apr 22, after the closing bell.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. CINF continues to grow through a disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re, which is making a nice contribution to its overall earnings, better pricing, strong renewal, solid retention and exposure growth.  A higher volume of written policies with a focus on earning new business through agent-focused business model should drive long-term premium growth.

CINF is building an agent network to sell its policies. This is because an agent-driven business is proving to be a more effective driver of growth and, therefore, holds promise for the long term. Strong cash flow continued to boost CINF’s investment income, adding to the benefit of rising bond yields. Consistent cash flow strengthens liquidity and supports shareholder-friendly actions.

Zacks Rank #2 Cincinnati Financial has an Earnings ESP of +2.50%. It has an expected earnings growth rate of 5% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 0.5% over the last 30 days.

Cincinnati Financial recorded earnings surprises in the last four reported quarters, with an average beat of 43.1%. The company is set to release earnings results on Apr 25, after the closing bell.

Vertiv Holdings Co. VRT designs, manufactures, and services critical digital infrastructure technologies and life cycle services for data centers, communication networks, and commercial and industrial environments in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. VRT offers hardware, software, analytics and ongoing services.

Zacks Rank #1 Vertiv Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +1.24%. It has an expected earnings growth rate of 33.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 0.4% over the last 30 days.

Vertiv Holdings recorded earnings surprises in the last four reported quarters, with an average beat of 30.4%. The company is set to release earnings results on Apr 24, before the opening bell.

Tractor Supply Co. TSCO has been benefiting from its sturdy demand and strong market share gains. Also, the buyout of Orscheln Farm and Home, and store openings bode well. TSCO is benefiting from its Life Out Here Strategy and the Neighbor’s Club membership program. TSCO’s ‘ONETractor’ strategy that is aimed at connecting store and online shopping also appears encouraging.

Zacks Rank #2 Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of +0.50%. It has an expected earnings growth rate of 1.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 0.1% over the last seven days.

Tractor Supply recorded earnings surprises in two out of the last four reported quarters, with an average beat of 0.23%. The company is set to release earnings results on Apr 25, before the opening bell.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO):Free Stock Analysis Report

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Packaging Corporation of America (PKG):Free Stock Analysis Report

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO):Free Stock Analysis Report

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT):Free Stock Analysis Report

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