If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. So after we looked into AGL Energy (ASX:AGL), the trends above didn't look too great.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for AGL Energy, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.064 = AU$710m ÷ (AU$15b - AU$3.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

So, AGL Energy has an ROCE of 6.4%.  In absolute terms, that's a low return, but it's much better than the Integrated Utilities industry average of 5.2%.

Check out our latest analysis for AGL Energy  ASX:AGL Return on Capital Employed March 18th 2024

Above you can see how the current ROCE for AGL Energy compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for AGL Energy .

How Are Returns Trending?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at AGL Energy. About five years ago, returns on capital were 14%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on AGL Energy becoming one if things continue as they have.



What We Can Learn From AGL Energy's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 48% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

On a separate note, we've found  2 warning signs for AGL Energy  you'll probably want to know about.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this freelist of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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