The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$20b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just US$0.65 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alimentation Couche-Tard after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Alimentation Couche-Tard  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alimentation Couche-Tard's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$76.5b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.3% to US$3.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$79.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$85.40, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Alimentation Couche-Tard's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Alimentation Couche-Tard, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$94.55 and the most bearish at CA$63.72 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.



Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Alimentation Couche-Tard's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10.0% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Alimentation Couche-Tard to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alimentation Couche-Tard. They also downgraded Alimentation Couche-Tard's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$85.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alimentation Couche-Tard going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Alimentation Couche-Tard that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.