What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at ARB (ASX:ARB) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for ARB, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.19 = AU$123m ÷ (AU$725m - AU$86m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

Thus, ARB has an ROCE of 19%.  On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 11% generated by the Auto Components industry.

Check out our latest analysis for ARB  roce

In the above chart we have measured ARB's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our freereport for ARB.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

In terms of ARB's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 19% from 24% five years ago. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.



The Key Takeaway

In summary, ARB is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 84% over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.

While ARB doesn't shine too bright in this respect, it's still worth seeing if the company is trading at attractive prices. You can find that out with our  FREE intrinsic value estimation on our platform.

While ARB may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this freelist here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.