Shareholders might have noticed that Gentherm Incorporated (NASDAQ:THRM) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to US$33.45 in the past week. Revenues of US$1.5b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.06, missing estimates by 6.8%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Gentherm NasdaqGS:THRM Earnings and Revenue Growth February 21st 2025

Following last week's earnings report, Gentherm's three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.45b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 6.9% to US$2.26. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.95 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 17% to US$48.80, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Gentherm analyst has a price target of US$68.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$39.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gentherm is expected to lag the wider industry.

Story Continues

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Gentherm going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Gentherm that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

View Comments