GlobalData Plc (LON:DATA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.0% to UK£1.72 in the week after its latest annual results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at UK£0.038, some 42% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at UK£273m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for GlobalData  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Following the latest results, GlobalData's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£289.5m in 2024. This would be a credible 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 74% to UK£0.067. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£293.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.086 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£2.70, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on GlobalData, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£3.48 and the most bearish at UK£2.31 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.



These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the GlobalData's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that GlobalData's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 39 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while GlobalData's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GlobalData. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on GlobalData. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for GlobalData going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for GlobalData (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.