Investors in Greggs plc (LON:GRG) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.6% to close at UK£28.50 following the release of its full-year results. Greggs reported UK£1.8b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.39 beat expectations, being 9.3% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Greggs  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Following the latest results, Greggs' eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£2.00b in 2024. This would be a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 4.6% to UK£1.34 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£1.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.36 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of UK£32.15, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Greggs analyst has a price target of UK£40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£25.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.



One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Greggs'historical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 12% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.6% per year. So although Greggs is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Greggs. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Greggs going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades  for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.