Woolworths Group Limited (ASX:WOW) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.2% to AU$37.49 in the week after its latest yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of AU$64b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.5% to hit AU$1.32 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Woolworths Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Woolworths Group  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Woolworths Group from 16 analysts is for revenues of AU$67.0b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 14% to AU$1.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$67.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.52 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of AU$38.75, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Woolworths Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$43.00 and the most bearish at AU$27.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.



These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Woolworths Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Woolworths Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Woolworths Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Woolworths Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Woolworths Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools  on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.