Key Insights

Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Lovisa Holdings fair value estimate is AU$47.30 Lovisa Holdings is estimated to be 32% undervalued based on current share price of AU$32.21 Analyst price target for LOV is AU$27.84 which is 41% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Lovisa Holdings Limited (ASX:LOV) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Lovisa Holdings

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Levered FCF (A$, Millions)  AU$141.9m AU$148.7m AU$183.1m AU$199.7m AU$240.3m AU$267.2m AU$290.0m AU$309.1m AU$325.4m AU$339.5m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 11.21% Est @ 8.50% Est @ 6.60% Est @ 5.27% Est @ 4.33% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%  AU$133 AU$130 AU$149 AU$152 AU$171 AU$177 AU$180 AU$179 AU$176 AU$171

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.6b



After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$339m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.2%) = AU$7.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$7.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)10= AU$3.6b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$5.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$32.2, the company appears quite good value at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. ASX:LOV Discounted Cash Flow March 18th 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Lovisa Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.067. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Lovisa Holdings

Strength

Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.

Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

Dividends are not covered by earnings.

Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Lovisa Holdings, we've put together three further factors you should explore:

Financial Health: Does LOV have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does LOV's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.