Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) has recently seen some shifts in its share price, with a modest dip over the past week after several months of relatively flat performance. Investors are now weighing up what this could mean for future returns.

See our latest analysis for Macquarie Group.

After several months of holding steady, Macquarie Group's recent share price movements, including the slight dip this week, reflect a period of fading momentum. Despite some short-term hesitation, the stock’s long-term total shareholder return stands out, with a 53% gain over three years and nearly doubling over five years.

While Macquarie searches for direction, now is a great time to expand your perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares holding close to analyst targets and recent results showing steady but unspectacular growth, investors are left to debate whether Macquarie is underappreciated right now or if the market has already factored in its future prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

With Macquarie Group’s last close of A$221.00 just cents above the consensus fair value estimate of A$221.24, the narrative suggests the market has already priced in future expectations. This sets the stage for the underlying drivers that could shift sentiment next.

Macquarie Group is investing heavily in its asset management business, focusing on performance fees and fundraising, which should contribute to revenue growth and improve earnings as the market conditions align with these strategic moves.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s fueling this precise price target? The narrative hinges on ambitious plans for expansion, profit margins that defy industry averages, and bold growth assumptions. Uncover the full story and see the quantitative bets that underpin this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $221.24 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, including margin pressures from tough competition and unpredictable fee income. These factors could challenge the positive outlook outlined by analysts.

Find out about the key risks to this Macquarie Group narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Calls the Price Overvalued

While analysts use future earnings and industry multiples, our SWS DCF model takes a different path and values Macquarie Group at A$144.44, which is far below today's share price. This approach points to overvaluation based on long-term cash flow projections. What flaws or limits might each method bring to the surface for investors?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.MQG Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Macquarie Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Macquarie Group Narrative

If you want to follow your own path instead of relying on consensus, you can dive into the numbers and build your own story in under three minutes, or simply Do it your way

A great starting point for your Macquarie Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MQG.AX.

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