Celebrations may be in order for Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.

After the upgrade, the six analysts covering Viva Energy Group are now predicting revenues of AU$30b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 12% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to surge 7,046% to AU$0.18. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$27b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.14 in 2024. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

See our latest analysis for Viva Energy Group  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Although the analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of AU$3.85, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Viva Energy Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 0.9% annually. So although Viva Energy Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Viva Energy Group could be a good candidate for more research.



These earnings upgrades look like a sterling endorsement, but before diving in - you should know that we've spotted 2 potential warning sign with Viva Energy Group, including the risk of cutting its dividend. You can learn more, and  discover the 1 other warning sign we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be  reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.