It's been a mediocre week for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$555 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$9.4b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$5.28 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 17%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Netflix  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Following the latest results, Netflix's 45 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$38.6b in 2024. This would be a notable 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 21% to US$18.07. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$38.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.11 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$634, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Netflix analyst has a price target of US$765 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$440. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Netflix'shistorical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.2% per year. So although Netflix is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.



The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Netflix following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Netflix going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Netflix's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools  on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.