One of the biggest stories of last week was how PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) shares plunged 23% in the week since its latest full-year results, closing yesterday at US$109. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$9.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, PVH surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$10.76 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for PVH  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 16 analysts covering PVH, is for revenues of US$8.67b in 2025. This implies a perceptible 6.0% reduction in PVH's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$11.42, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.01 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$132, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PVH at US$159 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$103. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.



Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that PVH's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 6.0% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 0.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately PVH is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards PVH following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PVH going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether PVH's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools  on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.