Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.9% to AU$5.30 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. Qantas Airways reported AU$11b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.52 beat expectations, being 4.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Qantas Airways  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Qantas Airways' 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$22.0b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 4.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 15% to AU$0.82 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$21.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.84 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of AU$7.05, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Qantas Airways's valuation in the near term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Qantas Airways, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$9.30 and the most bearish at AU$5.60 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.



Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Qantas Airways' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.3% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.3% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 9.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Qantas Airways is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$7.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Qantas Airways analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk.  We've identified 2 warning signs  with Qantas Airways (at least 1 which is concerning)  , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.