It's been a sad week for Bank of Georgia Group PLC (LON:BGEO), who've watched their investment drop 15% to UK£13.26 in the week since the company reported its yearly result. The result was positive overall - although revenues of GEL1.3b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Bank of Georgia Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of GEL15.40 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Bank of Georgia Group  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Following the latest results, Bank of Georgia Group's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of GEL1.59b in 2022. This would be a major 21% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.9% to GEL16.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of GEL1.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of GEL13.80 in 2022. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a decent improvement in earnings per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of UK£21.35, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Bank of Georgia Group analyst has a price target of UK£27.90 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.



One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Bank of Georgia Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Bank of Georgia Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Bank of Georgia Group following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Bank of Georgia Group going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified  2 warning signs for Bank of Georgia Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.