When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics that can help spot trouble early. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. So after glancing at the trends within United Utilities Group (LON:UU.), we weren't too hopeful.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for United Utilities Group, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.03 = UK£429m ÷ (UK£15b - UK£690m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, United Utilities Group has an ROCE of 3.0%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Water Utilities industry average of 4.3%.

See our latest analysis for United Utilities Group  roce

Above you can see how the current ROCE for United Utilities Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for United Utilities Group .

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at United Utilities Group. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 5.7% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on United Utilities Group becoming one if things continue as they have.



The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. But investors must be expecting an improvement of sorts because over the last five yearsthe stock has delivered a respectable 48% return. Regardless, we don't feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we'd be steering clear of this stock for now.

On a final note, we've found  2 warning signs for United Utilities Group that we think you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this freelist of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.