Allegion plc ALLE is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter 2024 earnings has remained steady in the past 30 days. The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the consensus estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 10.4%.

The consensus estimate for the company’s first-quarter 2024revenues is pegged at $915 million, suggesting a decline of 0.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for the company’s adjusted earnings is pinned at $1.41 per share, indicating a 10.8% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for Allegion this earnings season.

Factors to Note

Lower demand for residential products is expected to have hurt the Allegion Americas segment in the first quarter of 2024. We expect revenues from the segment to decrease 0.8% year over year to $734.9 million in the to-be-reported quarter.

Allegion’s International segment has been exhibiting weakness due to decreasing volumes in the Global Portable Securities business. We expect revenues from the segment to decline 1% year over year to $180.3 million in the first quarter of 2024.

The increasing cost of sales due to escalating raw material costs is likely to have dented ALLE’s bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. For the quarter, we expect the company’s adjusted earnings to decline 0.3% from the year-ago reported number.

Also, given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have partially hurt Allegion's overseas business in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the acquisition of Boss Door Controls in February 2024 expanded ALLE’s UK Business with a complementary portfolio and broader channel access. The acquisition is expected to have supported the company’s results in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.  Also, Allegion acquired Plano Group in January 2023, which expanded its Interflex portfolio and AWFM business with new capabilities in SaaS models and recurring revenue solutions. The Plano Group acquisition is likely to have aided ALLE’s first-quarter results.

Allegion PLC Price and EPS Surprise

Allegion PLC price-eps-surprise | Allegion PLC Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ALLE this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: Allegion has an Earnings ESP of +5.69% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.58 per share, which is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.50. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Allegion presently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).



Highlights of Q4 Earnings

Allegion’s fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of $1.68 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57. The bottom line improved 5% year over year. In the quarter under review, Allegion’s revenues were $897.4 million, increasing 4.2% from the year-ago quarter. However, Allegion’s revenues missed the consensus estimate of $913 million.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies within the broader Industrial Products sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. ATMU has an Earnings ESP of +1.42% and a Zacks Rank of 1, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is slated to release first-quarter results on May 3. ATMU delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.3%, on average.

Chart Industries, Inc. GTLS has an Earnings ESP of +9.86% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results on May 3.

Chart Industries’ earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the mark in one, the average beat being 75.9%.

AptarGroup, Inc. ATR has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present.

The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25. AptarGroup’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 7.8%.

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