International Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) reports third-quarter results on Friday, closing a hectic week for the FTSE 100 in which oil prices lurched and an expected Interest Rate rise loomed.

For an airline group, there are few numbers more closely watched than the price of oil. This week, that number has been anything but stable. Brent Crude dropped more than 7% on Monday, rebounded briefly in early Tuesday trade on reports of a US military strike linked to Iran, then slid again. Against that backdrop, International Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) is scheduled to publish its third-quarter results on Friday 6 November — the last major FTSE 100 company report of the week, according to the published diary.

A week of whiplash in the oil market

The numbers tell the story. Brent settled on Monday 2 November at $104.77, down $8.66, or 7.63%. WTI, the US benchmark, settled at $96.46, down $7.66, or 7.36%. In Asian trade on Tuesday, Brent rose to around $105.25 after The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. Officials described the strikes as defensive, aimed at preventing Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the report "added a degree of risk premium back into the oil price." Yet by the end of Tuesday, Reuters reported that crude had slid about 2% in volatile trade, as investors weighed talks aimed at ending the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Iran said contacts with Washington were continuing, though Qatari-mediated talks ended without a breakthrough.

The strategic importance of the region is hard to overstate. Before the conflict began in late February 2026, roughly one-fifth of the world's Crude Oil and Natural Gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why fuel matters so much to airlines

Fuel is generally one of the largest costs for any airline, which is why oil price moves can have an outsized effect on sentiment towards the sector. However, the link between crude prices and an airline's actual fuel bill is not immediate. Many carriers hedge, buying fuel in advance or using financial contracts to lock in prices for a portion of future needs. That smooths the impact of short-term swings but also means that sharp falls may take time to show up in costs.

Jet fuel prices can also diverge from crude, depending on refining capacity and demand. And because oil is priced in dollars, an airline reporting in another currency faces an added layer of exchange-rate exposure.

For illustration only: if a hypothetical airline needed 1,000 tonnes of fuel and the price per tonne rose by $10, its bill would increase by $10,000 (1,000 × $10 = $10,000). Real-world fuel purchases are vastly larger and partly hedged, but the arithmetic shows why even modest price moves can matter at scale.

What investors typically look for in airline results

Beyond fuel, third-quarter airline updates usually cover the peak summer travel period, which makes them particularly informative. Commonly watched indicators include:

Capacity:how much flying the group operated or plans to operate.

Unit revenue:how much Revenue is generated per seat or per unit of capacity, a guide to pricing power.

Unit costs:particularly costs excluding fuel, which reflect operational efficiency.

Load factors:how full aircraft were.

Forward bookings:what management says about Demand for the coming months.

Fuel hedging positionand the outlook for fuel costs.

Balance sheet and Shareholder returns:debt, Liquidity and any Capital return plans.

These are general benchmarks, not indications of what IAG will report.

IAG reports into a market that has been unsettled. The FTSE 100 closed on Tuesday 3 November at 10,638.43, down 122.90 points or 1.14%, its steepest one-day fall in a month. Aerospace and defence shares were around 1.2% lower at midday, and Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) was down more than 1.6% at that stage, although no company-specific reason was given.

Before Friday, the Bank of England is widely expected to raise its Base Rate by 25 basis points to 4% on Thursday 5 November, its first increase since August 2023. Reuters reported that elevated oil prices have fuelled Inflation fears, prompting many central banks to tighten — a reminder that the oil swing affects airlines both directly through fuel and indirectly through the economy and consumer spending.

Currency matters too. Sterling was trading at about $1.3417 and around 83.53p per euro on Monday. For a group with costs and revenue spread across several currencies, those rates feed into reported numbers.

Friday also brings the US October jobs report, a release that often moves the dollar and global markets, so IAG's results may land amid other market-moving news.

The outcome of the US midterm elections, held on Tuesday 3 November for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, is a further unknown. Reuters described a Democratic showing as already priced in, but For a Business that depends on transatlantic travel and on the dollar, any shift in US economic expectations is worth keeping in view.

Key dates to watch

Thu 5 Nov:Bank of England MPC decision, with a rise to 4% widely expected.

Fri 6 Nov:IAG Q3 results.

Fri 6 Nov:US October jobs report.

Thu 12 Nov:ONS first quarterly GDP estimate for July to September, at 7:00am.

Wed 2 Dec:FTSE Russell December review announcement, after the UK close.

The bottom line

IAG closes the week's FTSE 100 results calendar after a notably volatile stretch for oil, with Brent dropping sharply, briefly rebounding on geopolitical news and then sliding again. For airline investors, that Volatility is a reminder of how much depends on fuel, hedging and the geopolitical situation around the Strait of Hormuz. With an expected rate rise on Thursday and US jobs data alongside the results on Friday, IAG's update will be read against an unusually crowded macro canvas.