National Grid's record £70bn, five-year Investment programme is the backdrop for Thursday's half-year results, which land on the same day as a Bank of England decision expected to lift UK rates for the first time in more than three years.

The biggest spending plan in the company's history

When National Grid (LSE:NG.) reported full-year results in May 2026, it raised the stakes. The FTSE 100 Utility said it planned to invest at least £70bn over five years across its networks in the UK and the US Northeast. That was up from the £60bn plan announced in May 2024, an increase of £10bn, or about 17%.

Chief executive Zoë Yujnovich left little doubt about the scale of the ambition. "National Grid is embarking on the largest investment programme in our history," she said.

Spread evenly, £70bn over five years works out at an average of £14bn a year. In practice, spending programmes rarely run in straight lines, but the average gives a sense of the sheer size of the commitment. Thursday 5 November brings National Grid's half-year results, and with them the first detailed check-in since the plan was raised.

No half-year figures have been published yet. The key questions are about delivery: whether the programme is on track, whether its cost and timing have shifted, and how it is being funded. A plan of this size is only as credible as the progress reported against it, which is why each set of results now carries extra weight.

What the May numbers promised

The investment plan came alongside a set of financial markers that investors will now use as a benchmark. In those full-year results, adjusted Earnings Per Share rose 8% to 78p. The total Dividend increased 3.8% to 48.49p. The company also guided to compound growth in earnings per share of 8–10% a year over five years.

That guidance links the spending to the Shareholder story. For a regulated network business, investment in the asset base is typically what drives earnings growth over time. If National Grid can deliver the £70bn programme as planned, the 8–10% earnings growth target is the reward it has told investors to expect.

Illustration: Starting from adjusted earnings per share of 78p, compound growth of 8% a year for five years would take the figure to about 114.6p (78p × 1.08 to the power of five). At 10% a year, it would reach about 125.6p (78p × 1.10 to the power of five). These figures simply apply the guided growth range to the May starting point. They are not forecasts, and actual results may differ considerably.

The dividend gives another reference point. A total payout of 48.49p against adjusted earnings of 78p means the company paid out about 62% of those earnings as dividends. How the interim payout is set will be one of the details investors look for on Thursday, ahead of the interim ex-dividend date on Thursday 19 November. The amount has not yet been announced; a nine-analyst consensus of 16.86p is only an expectation.

Rates, gilts and the cost of building

The timing of Thursday's results could hardly be more pointed. The Bank of England announces its rate decision on the same day. Bank Rate is currently 3.75%, and markets are pricing a quarter-point rise to 4% at around 95%. A rise would be the first in more than three years.

For a company planning to invest tens of billions of pounds, the cost of money matters. Large infrastructure programmes are often funded partly through borrowing, so higher interest rates can raise financing costs. Higher yields on Government Bonds can also make the steady income from utility shares look relatively less attractive. UK 10-year gilt yields hit 5.44% in early October, a 19-year high, before easing below 5.3% by late October.

The case for a rate rise has firmed. UK Inflation rose faster than expected in September, and the UK Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.8 in October from 51.9 in September, a five-month high. Economists expect a 7–2 vote. Market watchers have pointed to the vote split, any forecast showing inflation above 4% early next year, and whether Governor Andrew Bailey pushes back on further tightening as the signals to watch.

The US side of the Business adds another dimension. National Grid's plan spans the US Northeast, and US 10-year Treasury yields stood at 4.89% on Monday, with the 30-year Yield at 5.25%. The US midterm elections on Tuesday and US October payrolls on Friday could both influence American borrowing costs and the dollar. Sterling closed Monday at $1.3417.

The wider market is in a steady mood. The FTSE 100 closed on Monday 2 November at 10,761.33, up 0.3% for a fourth straight gain. A slide in Brent Crude to around $105 a barrel from $117.61 on Friday weighed on energy names but lifted consumer and travel stocks. Fellow FTSE 100 energy company Centrica (LSE:CNA) slipped 1.83%, although no specific reason was reported. National Grid also reports alongside BT Group (LSE:BT.A), Diageo (LSE:DGE), Next (LSE:NXT) and several others on what is set to be a crowded Thursday.

Key dates to watch

  • Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections
  • Thursday 5 November: National Grid half-year results
  • Thursday 5 November: Bank of England rate decision
  • Friday 6 November: US October payrolls
  • Thursday 12 November: UK GDP first quarterly estimate for July to September, at 7:00am
  • Thursday 19 November: National Grid interim ex-dividend date (amount to be announced)

The bottom line

National Grid's £70bn investment programme, the largest in its history, sets the agenda for Thursday's half-year results. Investors will be weighing progress on that plan against the 8–10% earnings growth guidance and the 48.49p dividend set out in May. With the Bank of England expected to raise rates the same morning and gilt yields elevated, the cost of funding all that building is likely to be a recurring theme. Investors will be watching closely for any change to the plan or its financial targets.