Commodities Show Mixed Performance Last Week as U.S. Coffee Slips Below 21-Day SMA

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodity markets ended the week on a mixed note as renewed Middle East tensions increased uncertainty after Iran did not send its delegation for the latest peace talks. A firmer U.S. dollar also influenced price movements across commodities. Gold rose 1.91% and silver climbed 6.99%, reflecting continued demand for safer assets. Among industrial metals, copper gained 3.97%, lead increased 2.07%, and zinc advanced 3.50%, pointing to steady underlying demand. Overall sentiment remained cautious as investors continued to watch geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data for a better understanding of global growth conditions.

Natural gas declined 0.26% last week as ample supply and relatively mild near-term demand kept prices under pressure following the recent volatility. Crude oil, however, moved sharply higher by 5.55% as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified after the United States reportedly seized an Iranian cargo vessel and Iran responded with a fresh attack in the region. The developments renewed concerns about potential supply disruptions and supported energy prices. In the agricultural segment, U.S. sugar fell 2.95%, reflecting softer sentiment within an otherwise stable demand environment. Overall, commodity markets remained cautious as investors tracked the latest U.S.-Iran developments and broader supply conditions.

Global commodity markets ended the week with mixed sentiment as investors assessed renewed tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel and Iran’s threat of further retaliation. Precious metals remained under pressure as a firmer dollar reduced their appeal. Industrial metals showed uneven movement, reflecting cautious expectations around global manufacturing activity. Energy markets stayed volatile as concerns over possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence crude oil and natural gas prices. Agricultural commodities recorded selective movement, while overall sentiment remained cautious.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include Core Retail Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss US Coffee July Future (ICE: KCN6) for the next 2-4-week duration:

US Coffee July Future (ICE: KCN6)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: ICE Coffee July futures continue to trade within a weak near-term structure, with prices staying below both the 21-day moving average near 294.65 and the 50-day moving average near 288.54. The recent decline has kept sentiment cautious, although prices are attempting to stabilise after falling sharply earlier this year. Momentum remains soft, with the 14-day RSI near 43.02, suggesting that downside pressure has eased but no clear upward momentum has emerged yet. Trading volumes increased during the recent decline, indicating active participation as prices moved lower. For the near-term outlook to improve, ICE Coffee July futures would need to move back above both moving averages and sustain that recovery.

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USc 269.00 and USc 260.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, US Coffee July Future (ICE: KCN6) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts.

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 17^th April 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.