This is an updated version of the report published on January 20, 2026, at 10:48 AM GMT

Greggs PLC (LSE: GRG)

Greggs PLC (LSE: GRG) is an FTSE 250 index listed British food-on-the-go retailer that employs nearly 25,000 people and operates over 2,200 shops.

Key Recommendation Rationale – Buy at GBX 1,657.00

• Scalable Store Expansion Driving Structural Growth: With 121 net new shops opened in FY25 and guidance for around 120 net new openings in 2026, Greggs maintains a long runway for growth. Expansion into under-penetrated catchments, relocations to better sites, and the introduction of Bitesize Greggs formats support continued sales growth and improved estate productivity.
• Supply Chain Investment Positions the Group for the Next Growth Phase: Major supply chain investments are nearing completion, with the Derby facility operational from mid-2026 and the Kettering distribution centre on track for 2027. As capex peaks and then declines, these assets should support higher volumes, improved service levels and stronger returns on capital over the medium term.
• Strong Competitive Position and Cash Generation Recovery Potential: Although net cash reduced to £47m following peak investment, capex is set to fall sharply from 2026, supporting a return to net cash generation. With profits expected to be broadly stable in 2026 and upside tied to any consumer recovery, Greggs offers defensive growth with embedded cyclical upside.

Risk Analysis

• Prolonged Weak Consumer Confidence: Greggs operates in the discretionary food-to-go market, which remains sensitive to real wage growth and consumer sentiment. A prolonged downturn could limit like-for-like sales growth and delay recovery in profitability.
• Execution Risk from Rapid Store Expansion: With around 120 net new shops planned in 2026, there is risk of site selection errors, cannibalisation, or underperformance in new formats such as Bitesize Greggs, which could dilute returns on capital.

Valuation Methodology: Price/ Earnings Approach

Share Price Chart  

 GRG Daily Technical Chart, Source – Refinitiv

Conclusion

For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered – Domino's Pizza Group PLC (LSE: DOM), Frasers Group PLC (LSE: FRAS) and others.

Given its current trading levels, Supply Chain Investment Positions, Scalable Store Expansion, Consistent Market Share Gains, relative valuation, and associated risks a ‘Buy’ recommendation is given on the stock at the Current Market Price of GBX 1,657.00 as of 20^th January 2026 at 09:46 AM GMT.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 20 January 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level which the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and/or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenario.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and/or REFINITIV. Typically, both sources (LSE and or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’

Note 6: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.