This report is an updated version of the report published on 13 October 2025 at 1:30 PM AEDT.

Champion Iron Limited (ASX: CIA)  

Champion Iron Limited is an iron ore exploration and mining company focused on the production of high-grade iron ore concentrate. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Quebec Iron Ore Inc., CIA operates the Bloom Lake Mining Complex located in Québec's Labrador Trough. The company is advancing the DRPF Project and the Kami Project.  

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 4.83

• Technical Standpoint: CIA’s share price has surpassed the R1 level of AUD 4.513 recommended on 8 August 2025, representing gain of around 17%. Therefore, it is prudent to sell at the current levels.
• Declining Revenues: Revenue decreased by 16% year-over-year to CAD 390.0 million in Q1 FY26 from CAD 467.1 million in Q1 FY25, reflecting lower sales volumes or realized prices.
• Rising Cost of Sales: Cost of sales rose 19% to CAD 313.9 million in Q1 FY26 from CAD 264.9 million in Q1 FY25, indicating margin compression and higher production or logistics costs.
• Sharp Decline in Profitability: Net income fell 71% to CAD 23.8 million in Q1 FY26 from CAD 81.4 million in Q1 FY25, reflecting lower operating margins and reduced earnings resilience.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month – key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than average of the Basic Materials’ sector.

CIA Daily Price Chart  

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group) 

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Mar'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a premium to peers given the imminent commissioning of its Bloom Lake flotation plant, reduced net finance costs of CAD (13.3) million in Q1 FY26 versus CAD 8.3 million in Q1 FY25, supported by iron ore concentrate sales volumes of 3.8 million dmt in Q1 FY26, up from 3.4 million dmt in Q1 FY25.

For conducting the valuation, peers Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC), BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL), and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) have been considered.

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 4.83, as of 13 October 2025 at 12:55 PM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 13 October 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.